UPDATE: I missed this on my first read of the article, but an anonymous commenter was kind enough to point out what I had missed: a .pdf file of the poll. I've got to agree with the commenter, the Enquirer article wasn't nearly as good as it could have been, given the data available.

I'm going to take a few minutes to digest all the numbers, and then I'll have a new update.

____

UPDATE II: I've changed the title of the post. The poll doesn't so much show the district "turning blue," but it does have valuable-- and encouraging-- data.

Really, just ignore the original post below. The poll was conducted by the Glengariff Group, Inc. July 24-28, 2007, so Mark Schauer isn't mentioned. It has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Here are some significant findings:

Job Approval

President George W. Bush: Approve-- 25% Disapprove-- 74%
Congress: Approve-- 15% Disapprove-- 85%

Favorable/Unfavorable/Never Heard Of

Tim Walberg: 42% - 33% - 25%
Joe Schwarz: 43% - 25% - 32%
Jim Berryman: 15% - 12% - 73%
David Nacht: 4% - 8% - 88%
Sharon Renier: 11% - 9% - 80%

Walberg Re-Elect

Re-Elect Tim Walberg: 22.8%
Consider Someone New: 35.7%
Definitely Someone New: 18.7%

Generic Congressional Ballot
(Note: NOT a party identification, as suggested in the Enquirer article.)

Democratic Candidate: 36%
Republican Candidate: 29%
Independent Candidate: 12%

Iraq
If a candidate supported President Bush's "stay the course" policy in Iraq, would you:

Strongly Support: 22.8%
Somewhat Support: 14.5%
Somewhat Oppose: 9.2%
Strongly Oppose: 47.8%

Hypothetical General Election

Two-Way Race
Schwarz (D): 43.9%
Walberg (R): 40.5%

Three-Way Race
Walberg (R): 37.4%
Schwarz (I): 23.5%
Berryman (D): 23.4%

Hypothetical Democratic Primary

Schwarz: 46.4%
Renier: 12.0%
Nacht: 7.1%

(Note: Berryman doesn't appear to have been offered as an option.)

There's more in there, too, but this is a lot of data I've listed, and what I believe are the most important findings. Now, my thoughts:

This is a very Schwarz-centered poll, meaning that either Schwarz asked for it to "test the waters," or someone urging Schwarz to run commissioned the poll. There's nothing anywhere in the document I saw stating who commissioned it.

Also, it's worth noting that Jim Berryman was not listed when the Democratic primary was polled with Schwarz as a candidate. Is that based on the assumption that Berryman would drop out in favor of Schwarz? It's possible.

Also worth noting is the bit about Iraq. As long as Walberg stands by Bush, it hurts him with a majority of the electorate. Any Democratic candidate would be wise to make an anti-war message central to his or her campaign.

Overall, Democrats appear to be in good shape, though the other candidates will have to work hard on name recognition. If they can define themselves with the voters, rather than letting Tim Walberg label them as evil "liberals," they could easily build upon that generic ballot lead.

Of course, a lot of this changes with Mark Schauer's entrance into the race.

____

The Battle Creek Enquirer is reporting on a new poll conducted by the Glengariff Group, Inc. of Michigan's 7th District. I'd love to see a copy of the poll and its results, if there's anyone out there reading that would be willing to share. From the Enquirer article, there were three items polled: the presidential race (Clinton vs. Giuliani only), one congressional match-up (Schwarz as a Democrat vs. Walberg), and partisan self-identification.

Presidential results:

Giuliani, the former Republican mayor of New York, would edge out in the 7th District U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., 45 percent to 43 percent, the poll showed.

Congressional results:

If Schwarz, a Battle Creek Republican, were to run as a Democrat, the poll shows him beating U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, 44 percent to 41 percent.

Now, those are two hypothetical scenarios that really don't have a lot of value, in my opinion. Clinton and Giuliani have yet to win their respective nominations, and a lot can happen before either of them do. As for the hypothetical Schwarz-as-a-Democrat, it is significant because it shows that someone-- perhaps Schwarz himself-- is interested enough to do polling.

The surprising result from the poll, however, was this:

The poll, taken July 24 to 28, showed 36 percent of voters in the seven-county district identified as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans and 12 percent independent.

If the poll is accurate, the district went from solidly Republican to lean-Democratic.

Wow.

Labels: 2008 Election, Tim Walberg