(Many thanks to those of you who continue to share articles from the subscription-only MIRS and Gongwer with me.)

Last week's Detroit News/WXYZ poll conducted by EPIC-MRA showed some trouble for Congressman Walberg. I haven't seen all the data yet or the survey questions, but MIRS and Gongwer have a little bit more than the initial Detroit News article.

Some of the data below is incomplete, and the way I've listed it here is likely different from the way it was asked in the survey. I'm giving you everything the Detroit News, MIRS, and Gongwer have published, as well as data from RealClearPolitics.com.

(Margin of error +/- 4.9%)

Party Identification:
Democrats and lean (D) independents - 35%
Republicans and lean (R) independents - 47%
Independents/Other - 18%

All Independents - 40%

Walberg versus Schauer, no biographies:
Walberg (R) - 51%
Schauer (D) - 40%

Walberg versus Schauer, with biographies:
Walberg (R) - 48%
Schauer (D) - 49%

By Party:
Republicans, no bio:
Walberg - 82%
Schauer - 9%
Republicans, with bio:
Walberg - 83%
Schauer - 15%

Democrats, no bio:
Walberg - N/A
Schauer - 82%
Democrats, with bio:
Walberg - N/A
Schauer - 91%

Independents, no bio:
Walberg - 35%
Schauer - 46%
Independets, with bio:
Walberg - 38%
Schauer - 55%

By County (2006 results in parentheses):
Calhoun, no bio:
Walberg - 40% (45%)
Schauer - 57% (Renier 51%)
Calhoun, with bio:
Walberg - 38%
Schauer - 59%

Eaton, no bio:
Walberg - 58% (48%)
Schauer - 29% (Renier 50%)
Eaton, with bio:
Walberg - 60%
Schauer - 36%

Jackson, no bio:
Walberg - 55% (51%)
Schauer - 36% (Renier 46%)
Jackson, with bio:
Walberg - 51%
Schauer - 45%

Lenawee, no bio:
Walberg - 60% (56%)
Schauer - 30% (Renier 42%)
Lenawee, with bio:
Walberg - 46%
Schauer - 46%

Washtenaw, no bio:
Walberg - 46% (47%)
Schauer - 43% (Renier 50%)
Washtenaw, with bio:
Walberg - 53%
Schauer - 47%

(Branch, Hillsdale counties were not given in any article.)

Walberg Name Recognition:
Recognize Walberg - 93%
Do Not Recognize - 7%

Schauer Name Recognition:
Recognize Schauer - 47%
Do Not Recognize - 53%

Walberg Favorable vs. Unfavorable:
Favorable - 42%
Unfavorable - 30%

Schauer Favorable vs. Unfavorable:
Favorable - 19%
Unfavorable - 12%

Walberg Job Approval:
Positive - 39%
Negative - 38%

Bush Approval:
Positive - 37%
Negative - 62%

Granholm Approval:
Positive - 34%
Negative - N/A

Country Right Direction/Wrong Track
Right Direction - 17%
Wrong Track - 68%

Presidential Race:
McCain (R) over Clinton (D) by 25%
McCain (R) over Obama (D) by 16%

Most Important Issues:
Improving Economy - 41%
Protecting America From Terrorism - 13%
Health Care - 11%

Pro-Life/Pro-Choice Self-ID:
Pro-life - 43%
Pro-choice - 50%

... And that's all I've got for now. First, for all the reporters out there, the political junkies like me would really appreciate it if, when possible, you posted the complete data in addition to analysis. I had to look through four articles to piece all of that together, and there are still some gaps. I'd love to see the biographical sketches that were read, as well as see any other data from the poll.

I have a few observations, but before I start, I like the introduction to the MIRS article:

Wily Republican strategist Lee ATWATER's axiom was that a candidate was dead when his negatives hit 35 percent and his positives aren't at least 5 points higher — because those figures aren't likely to change.

If you glance up again, you'll notice that Walberg's negatives are at 38 percent, and his positives are only one point higher. So, Lee Atwater (Karl Rove's mentor) would be bailing on Walberg right about now.

I'm surprised by how well Walberg does in Eaton County and Washtenaw County, and I really do expect those numbers to drop this summer. Similarly, while I'd love for Mark Schauer to be able to win Lenawee County (my home county and Tim Walberg's home county), I really doubt that it'll happen. Still, if Schauer can hit 46 percent in Lenawee County with just a biographical sketch, it's definitely a place worth campaigning in.

Schauer is strong among independents (very important), and he improves more than Walberg does in every category when the biographical information is read. Since the poll was commissioned by the Detroit News (a paper that has never endorsed a Democratic presidential nominee), I'm going to assume the biography was fairly balanced.

I think it's also worth pointing out that Schauer gets significant support simply for being a Democrat. The lesson here, I think, is that one shouldn't run away from the (D) after the name this year. Independents are leaning strongly for Democrats, as was demonstrated in the recent Illinois 14th District special election, where Bill Foster won former House Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat with ads prominently featuring his party affiliation.

Still, remember that this is still a lean-Republican district, and it won't be an easy campaign. However, when 53 percent of the voters don't know who the leading Democratic candidate is, these results are pretty good.

Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg