Thursday, May 08, 2008
Roll Call, Cook: MI-07 Is A Toss-Up
Short post tonight, but more this weekend.
There are about four major political publications that "insiders" and wanna-be "insiders" follow-- Congressional Quarterly, Roll Call, the Cook Political Report, and the Rothenberg Political Report. And, of course, as a wanna-be "insider," I check them all every now and again, plus a few others sources. All four of them rate House and Senate races along a scale from "Safe Republican" to "Safe Democrat," and levels of "likely" and "lean" between them, and "toss-up" means they haven't if today were Election Day, it could go either way.
Incumbents are almost always safe or likely, with those recently elected or facing unusually strong challengers are labeled lean. Toss-up is a rating usually reserved for competitive open seats, corrupt incumbents, or representatives in districts which heavily favor the other party. I'm sure most of you already know this, but it's worth it to emphasize the point that you've got to be in trouble if you're an incumbent rated as "toss-up."
Rothenberg rates the Michigan 7th as "Lean Republican," as does CQ. Cook and Roll Call did, too, up until recently. But from Roll Call earlier this week:
7th district(Emphasis added.)
Eric B. at Michigan Liberal brings us more:
That's one, and that alone is enough to make any incumbent cringe. Then Charlie Cook offered his take:
House Ratings Changes:(Emphasis added.)
This doesn't matter to most voters. It does, however, matter to the political insiders who run the National Republican Congressional Committee, some Club for Growth members, and local party leaders.
At what point do they conclude that Tim Walberg is a lost cause?
Didn't Walberg just hold a bunch of Town Hall meetings about helping people with foreclosures.Post a Comment
Well, look what he voted against...surprise, surprise.
House approves $15B foreclosure aid
WASHINGTON -- The House has approved sending states $15 billion to buy and fix up foreclosed properties. The vote Thursday was 239-188 to approve the bill, which most Republicans opposed. It would provide loans and grants to areas hit hardest by the housing crisis. Supporters say the legislation will prevent neighborhoods around foreclosed homes from sliding into blight. The measure is separate from a broader housing package to provide $300 billion in refinanced mortgages for struggling homeowners. On that program, which passed 266-154, all of Michigan's six Democrats voted for it. The nine Republicans split: Voting against it were Pete Hoekstra of Holland, Dave Camp of Midland, Tim Walberg of Tipton and Candice Miller of Harrison Township; for it were Joe Knollenberg of Bloomfield Hills, Thad McCotter of Livonia, Fred Upton of St. Joseph, Vern Ehlers of Grand Rapids, and Mike Rogers of Brighton.
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