UPDATE: Sorry for the delay. The poll was conducted by Myers Research & Strategic Services, who are the same ones that conducted the Schauer internal poll from May that was released a month or two ago. They're a Democratic firm, but that isn't necessarily a reason to doubt the numbers. More on that later.

The poll was conducted September 24 and 25, 2008 (CORRECTION: September 23 and 24), with a sample size of 500 "likely voters," and the respondents were "stratified geographically"-- in other words, this wasn't all Battle Creek. The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percent, with a 95 percent confidence level.

Here are the results released today (previous results in parentheses, MoE +/- 4.00):

Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg

Mark Schauer (D) - 42 (37)
Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 36 (40)

Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg (Plus Undecideds, allocated based on stated partisan leanings)

Mark Schauer (D) - 48 (45)
Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 41 (47)

Name Recognition

Mark Schauer (D) - 67 (42)
Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 76 (74)

Myers also asks respondents to rate candidates on a "personal feeling thermometer," where 100 is very warm and 0 is very cold, with 50 neutral.

Personal Feeling Thermometer

Mark Schauer (D)
Warm (>50 degrees) - 35 (23)
Cold (<50) - 19 (9)
Average Temperature - 57 degrees

Tim Walberg (R-inc.)
Warm (>50 degrees) - 36 (36)
Cold (<50) - 28 (23)
Average Temperature - 52 degrees

And, finally:

Walberg Job Performance

Positive (Good or Excellent) - 34 (34)
Negative (Fair or Poor) - 46 (42)

Myers also says that "seven in ten" respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, which is where it was in their May poll, as well.

I've got a lot of thoughts on this poll, which I'll be compiling this afternoon. I'll have more later today.


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The Schauer campaign just released a poll-- Schauer 42, Walberg 36. More information and thoughts to come soon.

Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Poll, Tim Walberg