Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Schauer Internal: Schauer 46 Walberg 36

Here I was, thinking Republican endorsements and tonight's Siena Heights University candidate forum would be the only excitement. The Schauer campaign released a new poll:

BATTLE CREEK—A new internal poll released today by Myers Research & Strategic Services for congressional candidate Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) shows the state Senator leading incumbent Congressman Tim Walberg by ten points, 46 to 36 percent, outside the 4.4 percent margin of error.

“This new poll confirms that Mark’s record of working with businesses and fighting for jobs is resonating with voters,” said campaign manager B.J. Neidhardt. “This race will almost certainly tighten between now and Election Day, but Mark has always run like he’s ten points behind, and that’s exactly what he’ll continue to do.”

“Today, by a 28-point margin voters are more likely to blame unfair trade policies than taxes for Michigan’s economic situation, and across the board they favor Schauer on every economic issue,” said pollster Andrew Myers. “Make no mistake, this political environment is becoming dangerous for any Republican incumbent, particularly one whose connection to voters here is as tenuous as Walberg’s.”

Once again, it was through Myers Research & Strategic Services. It was conducted October 5 and 6, surveying 500 "likely voters." The partisan breakdown was 36 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent. The margin of error is 4.38 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.

Here are the reported results (Sept. 23-24 results in parentheses, where available):

Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg

Mark Schauer (D)
- 46 (42)
Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 36 (36)

Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg - Independents Only

Mark Schauer (D) - 39
Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 27

Mark Schauer vs. Tim Walberg - Lansing Media Market Only

Mark Schauer (D) - 48
Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 33

Trust On Taxes

Mark Schauer (D) - 37
Tim Walberg (R-inc.) - 30

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat - 44
Republican - 36

Barack Obama vs. John McCain

Barack Obama (D) - 50
John McCain (R) - 39

Walberg Job Performance

Positive (Good or Excellent) - 34 (34)
Negative (Fair or Poor) - 42 (46)

There's lots of good stuff in there for Mark Schauer.

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Schauer should win this 54-46
Any chance we might have audio or video of the Schauer/Walberg debate from last night?

Reports from the Jackson Midtown Association meeting on Tuesday morning were that Walberg made it clear that he doesn't support equal pay for women.
I'm working on it... Hopefully I'll have audio sometime tonight and a transcript by the weekend. WKHM says they'll have full audio soon, and they have some clips online.

This is the first I heard about an equal pay answer (I wasn't able to make it this time). I'll definitely have to listen for that. Walberg also lied about privatization of Social Security, so that'll be fun, too.
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