Many voters may not know who Sharon Renier is, but 35 percent in one poll would send her to Congress anyway.

The Munith Democrat and farmer, who has never held elected office, trails favorite Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, who garnered 43 percent in the first poll released since the August primary. With less than four weeks before the Nov. 7 election, 22 percent of voters remain undecided in the 7th District race.

The biggest surprise may be that Renier beats Walberg among independent voters, 36 percent to 33 percent, with 28 percent undecided. Of those polled, 32 percent identified themselves as independents.

• Sharon Renier only has a 23% name recognition. That's right, 77% of respondents don't know who she is. But even though she's only got 23% recognition, 35% are saying they'll vote for her.
• Renier is polling statistically even with Walberg in Calhoun county, is leading Walberg in Washtenaw county, and Walberg only has a majority of votes in very conservative Hillsdale county (though Lenawee county, his home and mine, is close at 49% for Walberg).
• Walberg is leading among women in this poll, 40-38. I'm not one to make broad generalizations, but the conventional wisdom is that a female candidate picks up more votes from women on Election Day, and I'd be surprised if Walberg actually led among women when voting comes.
• A pluarality-- 39% to 37%-- say Democrats should win the House rather than Republicans. Remember, this is a district that went to President Bush with 54% of the vote.
• Perhaps most importantly: Renier leads among the all-important independent voters, 36-33.

Labels: 2006 Election

posted by Fitzy  # 7:56 PM