Back in July, the Green Party of Michigan held its convention in Marshall, Michigan. As is often the case with minor parties, I completely forgot about it. Nevertheless, it is still worth reporting that at their meeting, they nominated Chelsea resident Lynn Meadows for Michigan's 7th Congressional District.

From what I can tell, Meadows is actually a fairly big name in the MI Greens, as the chair of the Tamarack Greens and having been their Secretary of State nominee in 2006. For that office, she won 70,218 votes statewide, or about 1.9 percent of the vote. Across the 7th District, she stayed fairly consistent, right around the two percent mark.

So how will she fare as a congressional candidate? As the Secretary of State candidate, she out-performed the rest of the Green ticket in 2006-- their nominees for Senate and Governor each got less than one percent. However, she was also the only minor party candidate running for that office, which meant that the 1.9 percent that she earned included those who were simply dissatisfied with the Republican and Democratic Parties and wanted to voice their frustration in a low-profile race.

The Green Party did not field a candidate in 2006, but in 2004, nominee Jason Seagraves took 1.3 percent of the vote, or 3,996 votes.

It'll be interesting to see if Meadows runs a strong campaign this year. I'm not expecting her to break two percent, but, then again, that's still two percent in what could be a very close race.

With this and Schauer's primary victory, we have our final November ballot:

Tim Walberg (R-inc.)
Mark Schauer (D)
Ken Proctor (L)
Lynn Meadows (G)

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

Labels: 2004 Election, 2006 Election, 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Green Party, Lynn Meadows

As a follow-up to my post last week about Libertarian Candidate Ken Proctor, I thought I needed to finish up the minor party field in advance of the Green Party convention this weekend in Marshall. In both 2004 and 2006, the U.S. Taxpayers Party, Michigan's branch of the Constitution Party, fielded candidate David Horn.

David Horn, for those that remember, was an interesting candidate. After Joe Schwarz won the 2004 primary over Brad Smith and Tim Walberg, I heard rumors that Walberg was telling people to support Horn-- the U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee-- instead of Schwarz, the Republican nominee. I never saw any proof of that, but if it were true, it might explain Horn's better-than-anticipated performance in 2004:

Republican Schwarz 176,053 59%

Democratic Renier 109,527 36%

Taxpayers Horn 9,032 3%

Green Seagraves 3,996 1%

Libertarian Proctor 3,034 1%

Now, three percent isn't much, but it's more than the other two minor party totals combined and came after a pretty much non-existent campaign. As an example, for the 2004 cycle, he raised a total of $9,838, which was less than Green Party candidate Jason Seagraves' $10,275. In getting three percent of the vote, Horn was the most successful third-party congressional candidate in Michigan that year.

In 2006, Horn was once again the nominee. However, he took an unusual strategy: he told people to vote for Tim Walberg. From my coverage two years ago:

More news this week from the Battle Creek Enquirer:

U.S. Taxpayer candidate David Horn is not making a serious run for office.

He does not intend on investing in his election efforts before the Nov. 7 election or doing much campaigning.

It's not often that you have a candidate that comes out publicly to say that he doesn't want the job he's running for, so of course this caught my attention.

[...]

"Basically, for anyone to want to vote for me, they'd have to be too Libertarian to vote for Walberg, and too conservative to vote for the Libertarian (Robert Hutchinson)," Horn said. "That's a pretty, pretty narrow focus there."

While Horn doesn't want Democrat Sharon Renier in office, he thinks it would be good if Walberg were elected.

"I'd probably be a Republican if more Republicans thought as he did," Horn said.

Horn said he agrees with Walberg's stances on "probably 90 percent of the issues."

(Emphasis added)

In that post, I then proceeded to describe some of David Horn's positions and those of the Constitution Party and the U.S. Taxpayers Party. Here's an example:

I support abolition of the income tax and repeal of the 16^th Amendment. I wish to restore taxation to that prescribed by our Founders: tariffs and excise taxes.

It's not quite Walberg's FairTax, but it's pretty close.

Given this near-endorsement of Tim Walberg, how did David Horn fair in the 2006 election?

Republican Walberg 122,640 51%

Democratic Renier 112,623 46%

Libertarian Hutchinson 3,787 2%

Taxpayers Horn 3,664 1%

Ah! He was back to where most minor parties belong.

Now that 2008 is here, has David Horn decided that the 10 percent of differences between him and Tim Walberg are too much? Will he or some other brave and conservative voice stand up and be heard? Will someone stand up to fight for the far-far-far-far-right of our district?

Well, no. The party did not nominate a candidate for Michigan's 7th Congressional District this year. Apparently, they decided Tim Walberg was already doing a great job representing the folks who are so conservative that they find the mainstream Republican Party to be too liberal.

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

NOTE: Edited, because on the first pass, I forgot this disclaimer.

Labels: 2004 Election, 2006 Election, 2008 Election, David Horn, Fundraising, Republican Party, Tim Walberg, US Taxpayers Party

I've got a LOT of stuff I need to post about Tim Walberg and the 7th District, especially some voting record updates... But first, I want to write something that'll be a little more fun.

Jerome Armstrong, for the New Politics Institute, has written a strategy memo for political campaigns going into 2008 on how to interact with progressive blogs. As a progressive blogger, obviously this is a big thing for me, and I'd really recommend any candidate go and read the whole thing (.pdf here).

This really is a must-read for anyone interested in running an effective, modern campaign. I'm not just trying to make myself sound important. Blogs are a key part of engaging activists and informing voters.

At the end of the document, there's a set of six recommendations for candidates, all of which are great things to implement. I'd like to take this opportunity to take a look at the internet side of the Renier, Schauer, and Walberg campaigns. I'm not saying anyone is better or worse than anyone else. Rather, I'd like to take a moment to briefly point out what each candidate has done to use the internet and their relationship with bloggers.

1. Take the first step with outreach to local bloggers:

This is something that should already have been done, but it’s never too late start. If the relationship doesn’t exist, reach out today. Rather than focusing on national bloggers, focus on those within your state first, as many of the national bloggers look to the state-based blogs for identifying which races to target as highly competitive. Have the leaders of your organization or campaign touch base with local bloggers,. Set up a conference call with local bloggers asking for feedback, encouraging coordination, and providing updates.

Renier: I started this blog in August of 2006, just as the general election campaign for the 7th District was starting. I followed the Renier campaign, as did diarists on Michigan Liberal. She even did an exclusive interview with Nirmal for his blog Who Got The Gravy (prior to Nirmal joining Walberg Watch). However, there was no coherent attempt to reach out to bloggers. She didn't seek me out (though, by the end of the campaign, we had been in contact), and she didn't seek out other bloggers, to my knowledge.

Going into 2008, Renier has yet to form much of a campaign, rejecting the idea of raising large amounts of cash and relying on a low-budget, grassroots model, like her previous campaign. Still, she and I have exchanged some e-mails, and I hope that she'll keep Walberg Watch and other Michigan blogs in the loop as she goes forward with her campaign.

Schauer: Mark Schauer has been great on this, even before he decided to run for Congress, with an account at Michigan Liberal and regular outreach efforts by the Senate caucus to Michigan bloggers.

When he first expressed an interest in running, I sent off an e-mail to his office, just to see what might happen. The next day, I got a phone call from his chief of staff, Ken Brock. When Senator Schauer announced, Ken Brock called me again to make sure I had heard the news, and we set up a way for Schauer to post something on Walberg Watch explaining his decision. Since then, I've had a chance to speak with the senator and the campaign regularly sends me press releases.

That's basically the best local blog outreach you could imagine. They've taken me seriously, shared information with me, and not cut me off when I've posted (or others have posted) negative items about the campaign or those involved. Schauer's campaign has been great on this.

(It's worth noting that the Nacht and Berryman campaigns were pretty good, too, but as they've withdrawn, I don't want to spend too much time on them.)

Walberg: Obviously, Congressman Walberg hasn't been all that interested in working with Walberg Watch (though, I have exchanged a few e-mails with his office). Currently, there's no corresponding pro-Walberg or anti-Schauer 7th District blog, nor have I seen the congressman reach out to Right Michigan or other conservative Michigan bloggers.

However, Walberg has had a pretty strong presence elsewhere in the conservative blogosphere. He's had guest posts on TownHall.com and Human Events, both conservative websites, and has posted his views on the Hill Blog for members of Congress. So, there's been an outreach effort of some sort.

2. Have a daily-updated website to engage and empower the bloggers:

If you are not putting out timely everyday information, then people who want to get involved are coming to the website and leaving empty-handed. The format is not as important as the information. Email your entire list, tell them to visit the website everyday for the latest news and ways that they can help. Event information, the latest news, resources to counter the opposition, all of this is important information to your supporters and bloggers. It keeps them stay engaged and fired up, willing to go the extra step in their volunteer activities. Your website should be an open door for volunteers and the blogs to engage with you.

Renier: Sharon Renier's website was updated from time to time in 2006, and more frequently as it got closer to the election (mostly for major items, like her television ad, the fake robocalls, etc.). However, for most of the fall, her website was mostly static, and has not changed at all since election day of 2006.

Schauer: Mark Schauer's website is still in the "under construction" phase, and can't be judged quite yet. However, from what I remember of his 2006 Michigan Senate re-election page, it was fairly static, updated even less than the Renier website, as is his official Senate website. As Minority Leader, one can also look at the Democratic caucus website, which is regularly updated with lots of great content. Now, it's tough to tell how much of that is the work of Schauer's staff, but if he can replicate it in his campaign website, it would be a smart move.

Walberg: Tim Walberg's website didn't change much at all during the 2006 campaign. Like Renier, it hadn't changed since the 2006 election for several months, only recently changing to its current version.

However, Walberg also has his official House website. It's regularly updated with statements and press releases, which is good, and Walberg even has a blog, which is occasionally updated and has some actual content.

3. Be on the blogs and advertise on the blogs:

Organizations and campaigns often have news, such as a poll or new campaign material, that will be of interest to your supporters. But it’s not enough to just put it on your website. You should also get it on the blogs. You can buy advertising on smaller local blogs for $100 or less per month, so there is no reason not to take advantage of this valuable resource. Having an ad on the blogs is also a good way to make your cause or campaign known to the blogger community. You can change any ads on blogads with your latest push too. Go to blogads.com and you will be able to search by state to find the blogs near you.

None of the three campaigns I'm looking at have ever purchased ads on blogs, as far as I know. However, if any campaign is interested in advertising on Michigan blogs, information for Michigan Liberal is available here, and information for Blogging for Michigan is here.

There's really no mechanism for advertising on Walberg Watch, as I really don't want to deal with the hassle it would entail, and I'm certainly not looking to profit off of this blog. Still, if someone really wants to pay me to stick up a banner or something, contact me and we'll talk about it. But I don't think it'd be worth it.

4. Get your opposition research onto the blogs:

Still got that dirt on your opponent that nobody knows? It’s useless if you don’t get it out to the people who make news. You probably have something a local blogger could use, but you’ll never know if you don’t get that info out of its manila folder and onto the web. By now, you ought to have local online allies that you can trust enough to give the scoop. Got a story that has a good hook? Feed it to the bloggers. Short stories that are personalized have the best chance at being posted. If the blogs cover it, then go to the more traditional news outlets, and press them to cover the story as well.

Renier: In the 2006 election, Sharon Renier posted a document on her website detailing Tim Walberg's voting record in the state House, which was about the sum of their opposition research. While the campaign didn't contact Walberg Watch about it, I did find it on my own, and posted most of it over the course of a month or so.

Schauer: I don't know what kind of opposition research the Schauer campaign has done yet, but I know I haven't seen any of it on this or other blogs. However, as noted above, they've been great about sending press releases and other information they want to get out there, which is a good sign for the future.

Walberg: I don't know what kind of opposition research the Walberg campaign did in 2006. All they really did was distort what Joe Schwarz and Sharon Renier stand for, and label everything they didn't like "liberal." So.

Others: Not other candidates, but other interested observers. There have been plenty of times where people have done their own research or noticed something peculiar and sent it along to me. So, there are certain people and groups that know how to use blogs to get their opposition research out.

5. Use YouTube:

It is best if you are creating video for the web instead of re-produced television ads, but your TV commercials can also be put to good use on the web too. YouTube.com allows you to easily upload your commercials for free and then put them on your website, email them to bloggers, and send them out to voters. Chances are, your local bloggers will link to your ad or put it on their website, giving you broader coverage.

Renier: In hindsight, there are a lot of great ways Sharon Renier could have used video in the 2006 campaign. Maybe something like what Larry LaRocco is doing in the Idaho Senate race, where he's "working" to get in the Senate by visiting different sites and spending time with regular people. Similarly, Renier's regular-person appeal could have been shown with video of her on the farm, contrasting her with the professional politician Walberg.

Unfortunately, there was only one video produced by Sharon Renier that ever made it on the internet-- her television ad-- and I don't think it was put on YouTube by her campaign, but by someone else (I'm not 100 percent sure about that).

Schauer: When one does a search for video on Mark Schauer, there are seven results. One negative, produced by RightMichigan.com, five put up for the Senate Democratic Caucus, and one put up by Schauer for Congress (the pasty video). In addition to those, there are a lot of videos on the Senate Democratic Caucus' website, many of which feature Senator Schauer.

Although most of it wasn't produced for this campaign, Schauer will, presumably, continue producing videos as we move toward 2008. Overall, he's been very good about using video.

Walberg: When one searches for Walberg, there are twelve videos. However, of these, one is an independent video titled "Walberg Coddles Child Abusers," one is an AFSCME ad against him, seven are part of the WOCR conservative radio programs I mentioned last week, and one is a piece of the Rush Limbaugh show. There are also two videos put up by House Minority Leader John Boehner's office of Walberg's floor speeches.

Oddly, the videos of the Walberg press office don't come up when you search for his name. I sort of found them accidentally. But, there are two videos which his office has added which portray Walberg favorably.

Overall, it's an okay use of video, though I don't remember seeing anything during the 2006 campaign. If I were to give them a little advice, though, it would be that they need to tag their own videos better. It doesn't bode well for them when their own videos don't come up in a search for "Tim Walberg."

5. Create a web presence on Facebook, MySpace and other social networking sites:

The most recent addition to netroots outreach is on the websites that have been used as social networking websites that have extended into activist networking around candidates and organizations. Having a presence on these websites is something that an organization should do, but maintaining one through the usage of the platform is what will engage the users of these platforms. Facebook and MySpace are two of the early movers in this space, and for those looking to do outreach into youth organizations and colleges, these sites are very important.

Yeah, it should be numbered six, not another five. Obviously, Jerome didn't proof-read.

A quick search of Facebook and MySpace shows that none of the candidates have really utilized these tools. None of them have MySpace pages, and only one-- Tim Walberg-- has a Facebook profile, which has very little information on it (though he does have 166 supporters). There is a Schauer for Congress Facebook group, but as far as I can tell, it's not officially connected to the campaign.

What's the value of these resources? Well, with Adrian College, Siena Heights University, Albion College, Spring Arbor University, Olivet College, and Jackson Community College (plus branches of other institutions) all in the district, there's certainly the potential for a motivated youth vote. On top of that, Michigan State University, Western Michigan University, Eastern Michigan University, and University of Michigan are all just outside the district boundaries. So, there's a lot to draw upon. Youth outreach should be a priority, and these websites are a great way to start.

Those are the six recommendations. Do you have any creative ways for campaigns to use the internet?

Labels: 2006 Election, 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Netroots, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg

Data below has been updated. On the advice of an anonymous commenter, I have reposted this. After all, you can't repeat yourself enough on this. It's clear that Tim Walberg works for the Club for Growth, not Michigan's 7th District.

Congress is on its break for the month of August, but there's still plenty to talk about. Today, I'd like to take a closer look at Congressman Tim Walberg's relationship with the Club for Growth.

The Club for Growth is not a nice organization. They claim to stand for lower taxes, pro-business policies, and "economic freedom." In practice, they stand for purging the Republican Party of those that don't follow their rigid ideology. Here's what former Congressman Joe Schwarz said of their role in the 2006 primary:

The effort was funded, probably to the tune of $1 million or so, by the Club for Growth, a Washington outfit supported by plutocrats nationwide who apparently have nothing better to do with their money than give it to an organization that stands for nothing -- though it says it's "anti-tax" -- and likes to play in elections in which it has no logical interest.

And it wasn't just Joe Schwarz. Senator Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) also saw a Club for Growth challenger in 2006. But most interesting, perhaps, was in 2004. The Club challenged Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) in the primary, with their hand-picked candidate Pat Toomey (now president of the Club) losing in a close, 51-49 election.

Senator Specter, of course, has served Pennsylvania as a Republican in the Senate for nearly 30 years. He even supports a flat-tax system-- a favorite of conservatives-- but that's not enough for the Club for Growth. Their ideological purity tests somehow determined that conservative Arlen Specter wasn't good enough.

But let's get back to Tim Walberg. What did the Club for Growth do for him?

First, there are the independent expenditures.

The Club for Growth spent $191,952 on behalf of Tim Walberg. I had to check that number a few times because the FEC listed so many expenditures, I was afraid I might have missed one-- and I still might have. (Fun facts: The largest expenditure was $110,727 for an ad buy; the smallest was just $2.00 for "internet communication.")

The Club for Growth spent $326,994 against Congressmen Joe Schwarz. That was probably those ads you might have seen claiming Schwarz was "a liberal."

What about Walberg himself? He spent $1,225,137 out of $1,260,111 raised for the campaign. That's a lot of money. Where did it come from?

Well, some of it counts the independent expenditures of the Club and other PACs. But of his individual contributions-- $947,745-- much of that came from Club for Growth members. See, the Club will send out fundraising letters to all of their members encouraging them to give directly to the candidates. Tim Walberg doesn't really have supporters across the country. Instead, he has a bunch of rich people send him $2,000 checks because he's on the Club for Growth's endorsement list. It's a nifty set-up he's got there.

So how much of that $950,000 came from Club for Growth members? It's hard to say. But Walberg did have 73 percent of his contributions come from out-of-state. So that's something.

So what does that kind of money buy you? Well, for the Club for Growth, it buys you a reliable voice in Congress. It's just too bad that voice doesn't represent the 7th District.

The Club for Growth issues "Key Vote Alerts" whenever an issue comes before Congress that they've chosen to care about. In each alert, they offer the proper instructions for their followers in Congress. That is, they state whether one should vote "yes" or "no." I've created a table to track these:

Club for Growth Key Votes
Bill/Amendment	CFG Position	Walberg Vote
HR 800	No	No
Sessions Amdt HR 1401	Yes	Yes
Ryan Sub. Amdt H Con Res 99	Yes	Yes
HR 401	No	No Vote Taken
HR 1257	No	No
Campbell/Ryan Letter	Sign	Signed
Bachus/Biggert Amdt HR 1427	Yes	Yes
HR 1252	No	No
Amdt #57 HR 2638	Yes	Yes
HR 2734	Co-sponsor	Original Sponsor
Amdt #10 HR 2771	Yes	Yes
Campbell Amdt HR 2829	Yes	Yes
P-F-H Amdt HR 2829 (Fairness Doctrine)	Yes	Yes
"Fairness" Amdt HR 2419	Yes	No
Rule for HR 2419	No	No
HR 2419	No	No
HR 3221 and HR 2776	No and No	No and No

Now, there are two blank spots on that table, corresponding with the "Vote Alerts" here and here. I can't seem to find how Walberg voted on those in any of the usual databases I search. If anyone else can find what I'm missing, I'd appreciate it.

____
UPDATE: A very kind anonymous commenter found those two missing votes for me, and the table above has been updated, as has the analysis below.
____

After removing HR 401, which has yet to be voted on, there have been 17 Club for Growth "Key Vote Alerts." Tim Walberg voted with the Club 16 out of 17 times, or 94.1 percent of the time. In contrast, Walberg voted with the House Republican Caucus just 90.7 percent.

Clearly, Congressman Tim Walberg has been just about the best representative that money can buy.

What would you do if you could buy a member of the United States House of Representatives?

Labels: 110th Congress, 2006 Election, Club for Growth, Fundraising, Tim Walberg

As we come to the end of 2006 it is time to look back at the election. I have looked at the numbers for both Walberg v. Renier and DeVos v. Granholm in the 7th District. I was very surprised by what I found. In the 7th District Granholm defeated DeVos by 15,958 votes. Granholm won 4 of the 7 counties in the district and received better than 55% in Washtenaw, Eaton, and Calhoun. Granholm even won Jackson County by 914 votes.

In the 7th District Tim Walberg defeated Sharon Renier by 9,683 votes. As I looked at this my first thought was that it must be as a result of a large drop off of voters from the Governors race to the Congressional race. While there were 7,421 fewer votes cast for Congress than Governor that is still 2,200 short of what Renier needed to catch Walberg. I would even argue that most of those 7,000 voters were Schwarz Republicans who would not vote for Walberg. I believe that the drop off is a result of a race that no one was interested in. There were 300 more votes cast for State House than for Congress.

It is interesting to look at the percentages that each county voted for Renier and Granholm.

Branch: Renier 39.79% 5,572 votes, Granholm 47.98% 6,901 votes.
Calhoun: Renier 48.83% 21,260 votes, Granholm 57.83% 25,854 votes.
Eaton: Renier 49.51% 22,108 votes, Granholm 57.65% 26,611 votes.
Hillsdale: Renier 32.54% 5,000 votes, Granholm 40.83% 6,408 votes.
Jackson: Renier 45.82% 25,281 votes, Granholm 50.06% 28,450 votes.
Lenawee: Renier 42.36% 14,379 votes, Granholm 47.11% 16,295 votes.
Washtenaw: Renier 43.74% 19,065 votes, Granholm 55.89% 22,402 votes.

In every County Renier under performed.

There has been a lot of speculation that Walberg did not do as well as expected. What is interesting is that he out performed Dick DeVos in every County. In all 7 counties Walberg had a higher percentage and 5,385 more votes than DeVos even with fewer votes cast.

Branch: Walberg 55.30% 7,744 votes, DeVos 50.39% 7,248 votes.
Calhoun: Walberg 43.48% 18,930 votes, DeVos 42.17% 18,852 votes.
Eaton: Walberg 43.33% 21,135 votes, DeVos 41.11% 18,977 votes.
Hillsdale: Walberg 63.77% 9,798 votes, DeVos 57.38% 9,005 votes.
Jackson: Walberg 51.00% 28,140 votes, DeVos 48.46% 27,536 votes.
Lenawee: Walberg 55.20% 18,740 votes, DeVos 51.06% 17,662 votes.
Washtenaw: Walberg 46.60% 17,861 votes, DeVos 44.11% 17,683 votes.

I am not sure what this means. My gut reaction is that this district is trending Democratic. In Eaton Democrats took control of the County Commission. In Calhoun Democrats defeated an incumbent commissioner and now have a 5-2 majority.

There are 10 State House Districts that are at least partially in the 7th Congressional District (52nd, 54th, 55th 57th, 58th 62nd, 63rd, 64th, 65th, and 71st). There were no open seats. The only incumbents who lost were the two Republicans who lost in the 64th and 65th. When you add up the votes in all 10 districts Republicans won by only 3,255 votes 50.66% to 49.33%. The 58th district (Branch and Hillsdale Counties) inflated the Republican numbers. Bruce Caswell won by 13,392 votes 72.9%. If the Democrat in this race had received the same percentage as Renier Democrats would have received 7,000 more votes than Republicans. What these numbers tell me is that this district will support a Democrat if there is a strong Democrat running.

I will be interested to read what others make of these numbers.

Labels: 2006 Election

This post should have come a few weeks ago. It's far from comprehensive, and the way I look at the data isn't perfect. That said, it shows real gains made by Democrats, and the potential for more gains-- and victory-- in 2008.

In 2004, the Republican nominee (Joe Schwarz) emerged from a tough and nasty primary with a slight plurality, while the Democratic nominee (Sharon Renier) surprised observers by winning a majority of votes with little money in a largely ignored primary. The Republican went on to win in November 58-36 (plus minor party candidates).

In 2006, the Republican nominee (Tim Walberg) emerged from a tough and nasty primary with a slight majority, while the Democratic nominee (Sharon Renier) surprised observers by winning a majority of votes with little money in a largely ignored primary. The Republican went on to win in November 51-46 (plus minor party candidates).

What happened between 2004 and 2006?

The Numbers

In both years, the 7th District race was largely overshadowed by an up-ticket, big-spending race-- Bush versus Kerry in 2004, and Granholm versus DeVos in 2006.

Below are the Schwarz-Renier and Walberg-Renier race results for each county, 2004 and 2006 (I've omitted minor party candidates for simplicity-- see below). Also included the 2004 presidential and 2006 gubernatorial results. Italics indicate that the winning party for that county changed.

Branch

2004:
Schwarz - 10,554 - 62%
Renier - 5,487 - 32%

Bush - 10,784 - 60%
Kerry - 7,004 - 39%

2006:
Walberg - 7,744 - 56%
Renier - 5,572 - 40%

DeVos - 7,248 - 50%
Granholm - 6,901 - 48%

Calhoun*

2004:
Schwarz - 35,557 - 61%
Renier - 20,368 - 35%

Bush - 32,093 - 51%
Kerry - 29,891 - 48%

2006:
Walberg - 18,930 - 45%
Renier - 21,257 - 51%

DeVos - 19,726 - 42%
Granholm - 26,670 - 57%

Eaton

2004:
Schwarz - 31,600 - 60%
Renier - 19,087 - 36%

Bush - 29,781 - 53%
Kerry - 25,411 - 46%

2006:
Walberg - 21,133 - 48%
Renier - 22,105 - 50%

DeVos - 18,975 - 41%
Granholm - 26,608 - 58%

Hillsdale

2004:
Schwarz - 10,785 - 60%
Renier - 5,227 - 29%

Bush - 12,804 - 64%
Kerry - 7,123 - 35%

2006:
Walberg - 9,798 - 64%
Renier - 5,000 - 33%

DeVos - 9,005 - 57%
Granholm - 6,408 - 41%

Jackson

2004:
Schwarz - 39,007 - 58%
Renier - 24,736 - 36%

Bush - 40,029 - 56%
Kerry - 31,025 - 43%

2006:
Walberg - 28,138 - 51%
Renier - 25,280 - 46%

DeVos - 27,534 - 48%
Granholm - 28,450 - 50%

Lenawee

2004:
Schwarz - 22,837 - 53%
Renier - 16,726 - 39%

Bush - 25,675 - 55%
Kerry - 20,787 - 44%

2006:
Walberg - 19,036 - 56%
Renier - 14,344 - 42%

DeVos - 17,641 - 51%
Granholm - 16,502 - 47%

Washtenaw*

2004:
Schwarz - 25,713 - 57%
Renier - 17,896 - 39%

2006:
Walberg - 17,861 - 47%
Renier - 19,065 - 50%

*Part of Calhoun County is in the 6th District. However, as the vast majority of the county is in the 7th, and no major population centers are in the excluded section, full presidential and gubernatorial data are included.
**Only the western portion of Washtenaw County is in the 7th District. The rest is in the 15th District, represented by Rep. John Dingell. Only the congressional results have been included.

Sharon Renier made gains in every county, picking up anywhere from 3 to 16 percent of the vote, in Lenawee and Calhoun Counties, respectively. Perhaps worth noting is the fact that her smallest gain was in Walberg's home county and her largest gain was in Joe Schwarz's home county. In 2006, Renier won three of the counties of the district, having lost all of them to Schwarz two years earlier. Walberg's percentage of the vote was thus lower than Schwarz's in all but two counties (Lenawee and Hillsdale, where 2004 had strong minor party candidates).

However, Renier was not the only Democrat to make gains in a "Democratic Year." Nationally, Democrats took the House and Senate, as well as picking up six new governorships. In Michigan, Democrats took the state House and narrowed the gap in the state Senate, and re-elected a Democratic governor by 14 points. Were Renier's gains just Granholm coattails?

In both years, Sharon Renier underperformed when compared to the top of the ticket. Yet, the average difference between Kerry and Renier in each county (except Washtenaw) was 8 percent, a difference that narrowed to 6.5 percent between Granholm and Renier. Renier wasn't merely being carried by Granholm and other Democrats-- other factors were in play, whether they were Renier's campaign successes or Walberg's campaign blunders. Given the considerable difference in campaign funding-- Renier's final FEC report showed only $39,000 raised, compared to Walberg's $1,000,000+ -- Renier performed incredibly well.

Perhaps most striking, however, is Jackson County. In both 2004 and 2006, it proved to be the bellwether, accurately reflecting the Democratic and Republican percentages in both elections. Birthplace of the Republican Party, this is the center of the district and the most populous county. Renier showed considerable strength, but still finished four points behind Granholm. This was the only county that Granholm carried and Renier did not. It also included other significant Democratic gains-- two state House Republican incumbents were defeated by Democratic challengers in Jackson County. (For what it's worth, the Renier campaign blamed

What Does This Mean?

Unfortunately, there's no easy answer that I see. If Renier had picked up four or five percent more, she would have won (or been close enough for a recount). Such voters could have been gotten-- after all, they did vote for Governor Granholm over Dick DeVos. That said, she certainly wasn't just a weak candidate, being carried by Granholm's momentum. Her message was genuine (if unpolished, at times), and despite poor funding and little support, she reached a lot of people.

Nor can everything be attributed to Tim Walberg. He's certainly a weak candidate that alienates moderates, but he's got an (R) next to his name, and old habits die hard in a district like this one. Despite hopes to the contrary, plenty of Schwarz Republicans stayed with Walberg. Had Renier been nothing more than a "sacrificial lamb" candidate, she might have received a bump in support, but not much more.

In short, Sharon Renier was a legitimate (if not the strongest possible) candidate, yet Tim Walberg, despite alienating many moderates, still has a loyal base.

The sequence of events that made this race competitive were unlikely, and there's no one factor which shaped the race. Still, it's a race that can be won in 2008.

Labels: 2006 Election

Today is Thanksgiving Day, and we have a great deal for which we should be thankful.

Tim Walberg will be our next member of Congress. Yet it will also be a Democratic Congress, and the new majority will keep him in check. For this, we can be thankful.

We can be thankful that Democrats won on multiple levels, including winning state House seats (including two in Jackson County) and re-electing a governor and senator.

We can be thankful for local media which still has its eye on Congressman-elect Walberg. He won't get to pull much without someone noticing.

We can be thankful for the opportunity we have in 2008. Sharon Renier promises to run again and, with a stronger campaign (and more money), she's got a good shot at winning. Also a possibility is State Senator Mark Schauer, Democratic leader and rising star. And there are more names that will rise as we come closer. I won't make any endorsements with this blog, except to say that I'll endorse the eventual Democratic nominee.

We can be thankful for the hard-working men and women of this district, who are devoted to a fair and equitable future, with opportunity for all. For those that work to oppose harmful politics and seek a stronger America.

And we can be thankful for all the patriots of our district, state, and country-- of all parties-- who serve their country, through serving in government, serving in our armed forces, and working to benefit their communites.

I've really slacked off on the blogging lately, and that will improve. I really will have that post-election analysis sometime in the not-to-distant future, as well as new posts on what Congressman-elect Walberg does in Washington.

Until then, thank you. This blog has been quite an experience, and I look forward to continuing it through to 2008.

Labels: 2006 Election

I started to write a post-election analysis, but I just don't have the energy for it. Yesterday took out everything I've got and, despite Sharon Renier's phenomenal performance, I'm not sure if I can quite manage a post about Tim Walberg's victory. At least, not yet.

When Congressman Tim Walberg goes to Washington, I'll keep writing. This man is the face of today's Republican Party-- a party that forces out good men like Joe Schwarz and loses elections across the country. He's out of step with his district, his state, and his country, and I'll bet good money right now that he won't be going back to Congress in January of 2009.

Winning this district in 2008 (along with the White House and other races around the country) will start tomorrow. As I saw someone comment yesterday, "It ain't over 'til it's over, and then it starts all over again."

Tomorrow, I'll have two posts for you-- election analysis (sneak preview: Renier outperformed John Kerry and won places Democrats usually don't!) and a look back at my blogging (sneak preview: there's a lot I could do to improve). Then, it's back to work.

UPDATE: Right, so it's a couple days later and I still haven't written those posts. It's not that I forgot, it's that my life got busy. But they'll be up this weekend, I promise!

Labels: 2006 Election

Wed. Morning Update:

I couldn't quite last all of Election Night, but I'm back! I've updated all of the vote totals and percentages. These are the final numbers, unless there are any unforseen recounts.

Final Update for tonight:

If I don't go now, I'll fall asleep on the keyboard. I'll be back tomorrow morning. Until then...

CNN has called its 15th House race for the Democrats, meaning that, if correct, the Democratic Party has retaken the House!

Now, will we have Congresswoman Renier, productive member of the majority, or Congressman Walberg, irrelevant member of the minority?

CNN reports, with 100% precincts reporting the following.

The Battle Creek Enquirer has different numbers (is it just Calhoun County? Or just Battle Creek? I'm not sure), which include the write-in total for Joe Schwarz.

Final Results:
Vote Totals:
Tim Walberg (R)------ 122,640
Sharon Renier (D)----- 112,623
Robert Hutchinson (L) 3,787
David Horn (UST) ---- 3,664

Percentages:
Tim Walberg (R)----- 51
Sharon Renier (D)---- 46
Robert Hutchinson (L) 2
David Horn (UST)---- 1

County Breakdown:

(Bold denotes county winner)

Branch
Tim Walberg (R)------ 7,744
Sharon Renier (D)----- 5,572
Robert Hutchinson (L) 247
David Horn (UST)----- 272

Calhoun
Tim Walberg (R)------ 18,930
Sharon Renier (D)----- 21,257
Robert Hutchinson (L) 767
David Horn (UST)----- 662

Eaton
Tim Walberg (R)------ 21,133
Sharon Renier (D)----- 22,105
Robert Hutchinson (L) 538
David Horn (UST)----- 618

Hillsdale
Tim Walberg (R)------ 9,798
Sharon Renier (D)----- 5,000
Robert Hutchinson (L) 215
David Horn (UST)----- 334

Jackson
Tim Walberg (R)------ 28,138
Sharon Renier (D)----- 25,280
Robert Hutchinson (L) 794
David Horn (UST) ---- 850

Lenawee
Tim Walberg (R)------ 19,036
Sharon Renier (D)----- 14,344
Robert Hutchinson (L) 409
David Horn (UST)----- 439

Washtenaw
Tim Walberg (R)------ 17,861
Sharon Renier (D)---- 19,065
Robert Hutchinson (L) 817
David Horn (UST)---- 489

There may be some delays as I try to keep up, and Blogger might go down. If so:

• Michigan Liberal's key races
• Electoral-Vote.com
• Daily Kos Targeted Races: Governor, House (West, Midwest, Northeast, South), Senate (West, Midwest, Northeast, South)
• DKos Election Liveblogging: MI-Gov, -Sen, MI-07, -08, -09, -11
  
• CNN.com America Votes 2006
• Battle Creek Enquirer Election Results
• Election Magic
• MI Secretary of State Election Results

Labels: 2006 Election

Polls close at 8:00 PM. Get out there and VOTE!

... And share your voting stories in the comments.

UPDATE:

Just voted in Marshall (9:30am). Very big voter turn-out. The election workers were very surprised on how many people have shown up so early in the day. Go Sharon Go!

Indeed a big turn out in Sherwood as well. When I voted in the primary it was at 11:30 am and I was the 52nd voter. When I voted this morning at 8.30am I was 78!!!! The ladies were surprised at the fire hall needless to say. John, whom I work with voted in Athens and he said that he was the 174 voter and that was also around 8:30. Hopefully this is a good sign for Sharon and I will see all of you guys down at her Headquarters, although I have been invited to meet her in person at her bash in Jackson. Well best of Luck.

NICK SMITH
and I do approve of what I've said!

At 1:00 Chelsea Precinct One had over 500 voters already casting votes, that's nearly one third the registered voters. The Western Washtenaw County Dems had a little tent and were giving out donuts and hot cider. I stopped to chat and got the poll totals.

I'll be back with results as they come in. Meanwhile, a few links for you...

• Michigan Liberal's key races
• Electoral-Vote.com
• Daily Kos Targeted Races: Governor, House (West, Midwest, Northeast, South), Senate (West, Midwest, Northeast, South)
• DKos Election Liveblogging: MI-Gov, -Sen, MI-07, -08, -09, -11
  
• CNN.com America Votes 2006
• Battle Creek Enquirer Election Results
• Election Magic
• MI Secretary of State Election Results

Am I forgetting anyone?

By the way, beyond the comments above, it looks like turnout is incredibly high across the country. Not sure what that means, except that people are participating in the process. That's wonderful!

Labels: 2006 Election

First, hello to all the new visitors to the site! Traffic dropped down a little over the weekend, but today it's shot right back up and I have no doubt we'll see a record number of unique visits today!

I'd encourage all of you to come back here tomorrow night as the results come in. I'll be posting updates as they become available. For more Michigan races, check out Michigan Liberal, and, of course, a traditional media outlet of your choosing.

Also, just as a side note, this is the 50th post I've made since starting the blog after the August 8th primary. Crazy. Fifty blog postings isn't much if you're a phenomenally talented blogger, but for a novice like myself, it's a milestone worth celebrating.

The big news of the day is that Congressman Joe Schwarz has filed as a write-in candidate for the 7th District race.

"This is not trying to upset the race," Matt Marsden, Schwarz's chief of staff, told the Battle Creek Enquirer. "This is not trying to pull any last minute hijinks."

Marsden said Schwarz supporters have told the congressman, R-Battle Creek, they planned to write in his name on Tuesday. However, without filing as a write-in candidate, those votes would not have been counted. And so Schwarz filed.

"There's no reason not to file the paperwork to give people a voice," Marsden said.

I'd like to take this moment to encourage everyone to vote for Sharon Renier rather than write in Joe Schwarz. There is absolutely no chance for a Schwarz upset victory over Tim Walberg, and if you sincerely wish to defeat him, you should vote for Sharon Renier.

That said, I understand exactly why he chose to do this, and I support him. If you're a Republican out there that can't bring yourself to vote for Tim Walberg, but you still can't bring yourself to vote for a Democrat, don't leave that space on the ballot blank. Write in Joe Schwarz. Similarly, if you had planned on voting for Walberg out of party loyalty, but would prefer Schwarz as your representative, write in Joe Schwarz. Congressman Schwarz is the real Republican in the race.

Sound a little odd? After all, didn't Tim Walberg's primary campaign consist of phrases like, "Joe Schwarz is a liberal" and "Joe Schwarz is a Republican In Name Only"? That was the rhetoric, but the truth was certainly different. In fact, Schwarz was endorsed by President Bush, the House Republican leadership, and all the major Republicans of the state of Michigan. Who endorsed Tim Walberg? James Dobson, the Minutemen, and the far-right US Taxpayers/Constitution Party Candidate David Horn. It's clear that Walberg would be more comfortable in a fringe party, not the GOP.

Of course, as a write-in, Schwarz has little chance to win. So what does he say about the two major-party nominees?

"Tim Walberg is conservative in the extreme, and is not particularly well versed in a number of issues that he's going to have to bone up on," Schwarz said. "National security, homeland security, the military, health care come to mind right off the top of the head. Economic development also.

"We'll see how he performs."

We shall see indeed. Now, how about Renier?

"I got to know her a little bit two years ago," he said of Renier. "She's pretty bright and has a good grasp of a lot of issues — not all issues, but a lot of them. She's a very credible candidate."

And then there's this:

Schwarz says he has made up his mind -- and he won't vote for Walberg.

The congressman contended Walberg won the primary "by blatantly distorting my record and committing character assassination."

Schwarz's campaign last month filed an extensive campaign-finance complaint, contending Walberg illegally took more than $500,000 in contributions.

Schwarz also blasted his former foe for not backing "life-saving" embryonic stem-cell research and supporting intelligent design.

But the surgeon and former state senator has played coy about endorsing Renier or another candidate.

"Sharon is a woman of good character," Schwarz said. "As far as I can tell, her positions are fairly moderate."

Tomorrow, the most important thing is that you vote. The democratic process is what matters most, and is the institution we should cherish, regardless of the candidates.

The second most important thing is that you vote for Sharon Renier.

I'd love for you all to share your voting experiences, good or bad, in the comments. I'll be promoting a few to the front page, depending on how many I get. Until then...

UPDATE: I don't expect too many election hijinks in this district, but one must always be ready for voter suppression. If you feel you're being denied your right to vote or pressured away from voting or toward voting for some candidate when you go to your polling place tomorrow, don't leave in disgust. Stay there, and call 1-888-DEM-VOTE. That number will put you in contact with someone that can help and, if necessary, send an observer to your polling place to work out the issue.

Far less important-- today has totally blown away the daily site statistics, and it's only 9:30 PM.

Labels: 2006 Election

Without a doubt, Congressman Joe Schwarz is well-qualified for his position and reflects the values and views of his district fairly well. But Congressman Schwarz isn't on the ballot this year, having been defeated by far-right extremist Tim Walberg.

Despite his claims of a large victory, Walberg won narrowly in a low-turnout primary. So where will all of the Schwarz voters go on November 7th?

The Jackson Citizen Patriot asks that question in today's issue.

Will they move to Schwarz's left and pick Renier, who is trying for the seat again? Or will they veer right and select Tim Walberg, who ousted Schwarz in a contentious GOP primary?

Call it the Schwarz factor.

"Those of you who voted for Joe Schwarz should feel welcome here," Gov. Jennifer Granholm said last week while stumping for Renier in Jackson. "Those bread-and-butter moderates ... have been left behind by the Republican Party."

Moderates don't have a place in the modern Republican Party. Ask Jim Webb, Ronald Reagan's Secretary of the Navy, who's running for Senate in Virginia as a Democrat. Ask Jim Marcinkowski, a former Republican who's running for the House in the 8th District as a Democrat. Ask Gil Ziegler, a former Republican candidate for Congress in the 1st District, who founded Republicans for Granholm.

And then ask Congressman Joe Schwarz about the place of moderates in the modern Republican Party.

The article continues:

Or will Schwarz supporters just stay home?

"Few people vote in the primary. People don't know who Tim Walberg is," said Ed Sarpolus, vice president of the Lansing-based polling firm EPIC/MRA. "And he's to the right of where the district is. But nobody knows Sharon Renier."

Schwarz says he has made up his mind -- and he won't vote for Walberg.

The congressman contended Walberg won the primary "by blatantly distorting my record and committing character assassination."

Schwarz's campaign last month filed an extensive campaign-finance complaint, contending Walberg illegally took more than $500,000 in contributions.

Schwarz also blasted his former foe for not backing "life-saving" embryonic stem-cell research and supporting intelligent design.

But the surgeon and former state senator has played coy about endorsing Renier or another candidate.

"Sharon is a woman of good character," Schwarz said. "As far as I can tell, her positions are fairly moderate."

(Emphasis added)

A woman of good character. Fairly moderate. In politics these days, that's about as close as you can get to a Republican endorsing a Democrat.

The 7th District is not as conservative as Tim Walberg might wish, and we've had the good fortune of being represented by a genuine moderate for the last two years. Shouldn't we continue that trend?

Sharon Renier

Labels: 2006 Election

From the comments...

The number from which those calls were made was reported by the "Battle Creek Enquirer" to be 877-686-7358. That number tracked back to a company called "Western Wats" on May 24, according to the site http://whocalled.us/lookup/8776867358

Western Wats is a private push polling/telemarketing/surveying company in Orem, Utah that works mostly for Republican candidates and draws a lot of business from the "Tarrance Group" a Republican consulting firm.

Search google for "western wats" and "republican" or "western wats" and "dirty tricks" and draw your own conclusions about who sponsored those calls.

Interesting...

Labels: 2006 Election

Sharon Renier's television ad has been available on her website for a while now, but I know a few people out there have had trouble getting it to play on their computers.

Finally, someone with more knowledge than I have has posted the ad on YouTube, which can be seen below:



(Thanks to Pohlitics, where I first saw the YouTube posting.)

This has been broadcast in the district, but with the small budget the Renier campaign is running on, it probably hasn't been seen by many people. Help out by sharing this video with friends, neighbors, and voters who are curious about Sharon Renier and want to hear her side, not just the NRCC and Tim Walberg's side.

Labels: 2006 Election

Four days until Election Day! Regardless of who wins in the 7th District race, I think this election cycle has been good for the district. True, well-respected incumbent Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz was defeated in a brutal primary by Tim Walberg, and both Walberg and Democratic nominee Sharon Renier haven't exactly had a cordial relationship.

But this year, it's become a real race, and not just a coronation for the Republican candidate. Both our political parties function best when there's a credible opposition in every district and for every seat, and this year, with no assistance from the national Democratic Party, Sharon Renier has given new energy to the 7th District Democrats. Even if we stay in the minority, this is a fantastic development, and I hope it carries forward into future elections.

Anyway, here's the latest:

• First Lady Laura Bush was in Battle Creek to campaign with Tim Walberg and Senate candidate Michael Bouchard. She's probably the most popular person in the Bush White House right now-- certainly more popular than Walberg's last visitor, Vice President Cheney-- and her visit is another sign that the national GOP is worried about the district.
• Both the Renier campaign and the Walberg campaign have distanced themselves from the fake "robo calls," in which a woman impersonates Sharon Renier and makes personal attacks against Tim Walberg. Read more here and here.
• The Jackson Citizen-Patriot endorses Tim Walberg. However, I still encourage you to read it, because the endorsement itself is telling. Rather than praise Walberg for his conservative record and "pro-life" stances, it's clear that they endorsed Walberg only because they couldn't bring themselves to endorse Renier. In their view, her rhetoric is too crude for Congress. I say, I'd rather have a crude representative that tells the truth and works for the district than a smooth, well-spoken career politician that works for the Club for Growth.
• Retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) was in Jackson this evening, campaigning for Michigan candidates-- including Tim Walberg. Even if Frist's chances at winning the GOP presidential nomination don't look too good, he's still a powerful player. Why does he have to campaign in Jackson, the birthplace of the Republican Party?
• WLNS gave Walberg and Renier a minute each to describe their positions. An interesting, if short, read.

Now, tonight's sample of Tim Walberg's voting record in the Michigan Legislature:

HB 5888
Department of Agriculture Budget

Outcome: Passed 86-18

Tim Walberg: NO
5/5/98
Roll Call 327

Passage of MEGA (Michigan Economic Development Authority) which allowed the state to provide special tax breaks to recruit new job creation

Outcome: Passed 68-35

Tim Walberg: NO
4/4/95
Roll Call 285

Amendment requiring that no money allocated to the Department of Labor could be used to promote a "right to work" philosophy

Outcome: Passed 83-17

Tim Walberg: NO
3/26/96
Roll Call 259

Now, I haven't been as consistent as I had intended to be when highlighting these votes, and tonight is the end of the series, because I think I've made my point. Walberg voted repeatedly against common-sense measures that had the support of the vast majority of the state legislature in his quest against government spending. Some might call that principled. But then there are these votes:

HCR 12
Rejection of the SOCC recommended pay raise

Tim Walberg: NO
1/30/95
Roll Call 4

HCR1/HCR2
Rejection of the SOCC recommended pay raise

Tim Walberg: NO
1/30/97
Roll Call 14

Tim Walberg: NO
1/30/97
Roll Call 15

Just to be clear, these "NO" votes were votes in support of giving himself a pay raise. Meanwhile, he voted against raising the minimum wage.

I don't know about you, but that bothers me.

In the comments, feel free to mention the Walberg votes you find most revealing, after browsing the collection the Renier campaign has made available.

Labels: 2006 Election, Walberg Voting Record

Sharon Renier (D) released a press release today. Apparently, someone's been impersonating her in the "robo calls"-- recorded phone messages-- that we've been flooded with this election.

November began in the Michigan 7th Congressional race with automated "robo" calls from a toll-free 800 number from a woman posing as Democratic candidate Sharon Renier. The calls contained nasty, unkind remarks about Renier's Republican opponent Tim Walberg.

Renier said, "Throughout the campaign I promised voters that I will not resort to these automated 'robo' calls. It disgusts me that someone or some group has stooped so low as to impersonate my voice while reciting vile comments. I did not authorize these calls, and I do not know who authorized this campaign dirty trick. I apologize to anyone who has been upset after receiving one of these filthy calls. I also call on my opponent, Tim Walberg to denounce them, especially if we find that the calls are from either Republican organizations in Washington or groups like the Club for Growth that used negative tactics in the primary against Congressman Schwarz."

The Renier campaign has contacted the Federal Elections Commission and the phone company to trace the calls.

This is a big deal. Hopefully more information will come forward soon.

Labels: 2006 Election

In These Times magazine describes itself as:

In These Times is dedicated to informing and analyzing popular movements for social, environmental and economic justice; to providing a forum for discussing the politics that shape our lives; and to producing a magazine that is read by the broadest and most diverse audience possible.

Frankly, I'm not familiar with the magazine, but the most recent issue includes an article which deals with Michigan and the 7th Congressional District.

The article is titled "Middle America Confronts Its Own Taliban."

Now, before I say anything more, I want to make clear that I object to this kind of rhetoric. What the article tries to say is that Tim Walberg is part of the Religious Right movement to impose narrow, strict definitions of lifestyle. Using the name "Taliban" is just as bad as President Bush implying that a vote for Democrats is a vote for the terrorists-- it's ridiculous, and lowers the level of debate in this country.

That said, the article is interesting for the angle that it takes, and is perhaps worth reading. Here's the lead paragraph:

Overshadowed by Ned Lamont’s Aug. 8 primary win for Senate in Connecticut was an ugly ouster the same day of a moderate GOP incumbent congressman from Michigan, Joe Schwarz. In his first term in Congress, Schwarz, a doctor, backed lifting the ban on stem-cell research and raising the minimum wage. But in the low-turnout primary, he narrowly lost to Tim Walberg, a minister who took money from the anti-immigrant Minutemen and had to deny involvement in an episode of antigay vandalism at Schwarz’s campaign office. Walberg’s win is the latest by a far-right insurgency in the state. Since 2000, this small group has shoehorned attacks on abortion rights, intolerance against gays, and even racist appeals into the strategy of the state Republican Party.

I don't necessarily agree with everything, but it's interesting to read.

Labels: 2006 Election

Robert Novak, regardless of your opinions of his politics, is a fairly well-respected political analyst, with perhaps a Republican bias in his predictions.

So what does he have to say about the Michigan 7th District? The Evans-Novak Political Report (on Human Events, "The National Conservative Weekly") says:

Michigan-7: Former State Rep. Tim Walberg (R) may have taken a victory lap too soon after defeating Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) in the primary. He is now embroiled in a scandal involving a staffer who pleaded guilty to hitting his foster child. Republicans admit that Walberg, in standing by the staffer (who has now resigned), has not handled the issue well.

The Democratic candidate in this race, organic farmer Sharon Renier, has no money and the district is heavily Republican. If this seat goes to the Democrats, it is a sign of a tsunami. Leaning Republican Retention.

A tsunami? Perhaps. Or perhaps it's a sign that Tim Walberg is so out-of-step with the Michigan 7th-- a moderately conservative district-- that the district could elect a Democrat for the first time.

Sharon Renier is probably closer to Joe Schwarz's positions than fellow-Republican Tim Walberg, and it's certainly not because Schwarz is a "liberal." This district deserves to be represented by a moderate voice.

Sharon Renier
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Labels: 2006 Election

One week from Election Day!

• The Adrian Daily Telegram endorsed Tim Walberg, a Lenawee County native, for the 7th District race. You can read their endorsement here. Needless to say, I'm disappointed in my hometown paper, but not surprised.
• Governor Granholm was in Battle Creek today, appealing to both Democrats and Schwarz Republicans. Who else was there? Sharon Renier, Democratic nominee for Congress:

Granholm brought forward Democrat Sharon Renier, who is running against Republican Tim Walberg in the 7th Congressional District.

The governor said Walberg and DeVos represented the "hard right," and supporters of U.S. Rep Joe Schwarz — a moderate Republican from Battle Creek ousted by Walberg in the primary election — "should feel welcome" voting for her and Renier.

• CQPolitics.com has changed their rating of the 7th District from "Safe Republican" to "Favored Republican." CQ is famously cautious, and them changing the rating is a big deal. Go read what they have to say.
• The first YouTube contribution to the race:

Labels: 2006 Election

The Battle Creek Enquirer endorses Sharon Renier for Congress in the 7th District, the first major newspaper endorsement for her.

Below, they write:

In the 7th Congressional District, we wish we could be writing an enthusiastic endorsement for a moderate politician with a keen intellect and a thorough grasp of national and international issues. But U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz was defeated in the August Republican primary, leaving district voters with a choice on the far left or the far right of the political spectrum.

Given that choice, we endorse Democrat Sharon Renier, an organic farmer and paralegal who is campaigning on a platform of more jobs and better health care and education. We agree with Renier in her views that the federal government has overstepped its bounds in the surveillance of its citizens and is failing to uphold their constitutional rights.

Her opponent, former Republican legislator Tim Walberg, has taken many stands with which we disagree, including making President Bush's tax cuts permanent and instituting other tax reductions, drilling for oil in pristine areas to achieve national energy independence, deporting all illegal aliens, eliminating the U.S. Department of Education and more.

On the issue of Iraq, Renier thinks the United States needs to secure Baghdad and withdraw its troops, then help Iraqis to rebuild their nation and economy. Walberg believes U.S. troops should not leave until Iraq's democratic government is able to defend itself and its citizens.

Ultimately, we think Renier would represent the Battle Creek area better than Walberg, whose campaign has been heavily financed by out-of-district interests to whom we think, if elected, he would be more beholden than to his constituents.

The Enquirer has a circulation of nearly 25,000, so plenty of voters in the all-important Calhoun County will see this. Obviously it wasn't an enthusiastic endorsement-- they had been hoping for native son Joe Schwarz. But it's certainly a big gain for Renier, especially coming after the non-endorsements for Walberg in the Ann Arbor News and the Detroit Free Press, and the Detroit News endorsing the Libertarian.

Labels: 2006 Election