I think that this is interesting. Compared to this time last year-- when there was no election-- and this time in 2006, traffic to Walberg Watch is down, but not by all that much. Why is this interesting? Well, frankly, because I've fallen down on the job and fallen behind. Life got in the way. And even so, people keep visiting Walberg Watch. Thank you, everyone, and especially to everyone that has e-mailed me over the last few weeks.

Even though I've been a little quieter, I still absolutely believe that Mark Schauer is the right man for the job, and Tim Walberg absolutely has to go.

I've simply run out of time to give everything the time it deserves, but here are some interesting last-minute items:

-----

The Michigan Republican Party put out this advertisement:



What's the problem? The photo of Mark Schauer slowly floating down the screen was stolen from a progressive blogger. According to Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot, two more photos were also stolen from the same blogger for use in direct mail pieces.

That's just a low move.

-----

Speaking of Chris Gautz, he'll be holding a liveblog tomorrow night following the results. I don't always agree with the conclusions he reaches, but it's worth checking out. Chris has a fun writing style and tells it as he sees it.

And besides, I'll be away from a computer until about 9:30pm, so there's a chance Walberg Watch won't have anything exciting for a while. You've got to have somewhere to go.

-----

There have been a lot of pre-Election Day "Walberg, Schauer in tight race" stories or "Candidates make final push" stories. If you're at Walberg Watch looking for more information, chances are you've already read one of them or you could write one yourself. Still, here's a small sample:

Schauer talks jobs at local visit - Daily Telegram
Candidates make final push as election nears - Jackson Citizen Patriot
Campaign for Congress down to final moments - Battle Creek Enquirer

-----

Former Congressman Nick Smith-- who served the district from 1993 to 2005-- endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg for reelection. It's not a huge surprise. His son, Brad Smith, had actually gotten the Club for Growth endorsement over Tim Walberg in 2004, and no one has ever said either Smith was anything other than conservative. I think I might also remember having seen Smith contribute to Walberg sometime in the last two years, though I'm not totally sure.

Still, it's a significant endorsement, and worth reporting.

-----

In mid-October, President George W. Bush was in Grand Rapids for a fundraising trip, and Congressman Tim Walberg was a major beneficiary.

George W. Bush was here, helping Tim Walberg.

I've got no further comment.

-----

In case you're one of the many people every day that comes to Walberg Watch following a Google search for polling on the race, Pollster.com has a handy graph that shows the polling trend of the race. Sadly, there's been very little independent, public polling.

-----

Remember to vote. Sure, you have to pay taxes and obey the laws in this country. But your right to vote makes up for all of those mild inconveniences.

Bob Schieffer of CBS News said this at the conclusion of the third presidential debate:

I'll leave you tonight with what my mother always said: Go vote now. It'll make you feel big and strong.

That's right.

If I've missed anything you think is important, leave it in the comments.

Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Endorsements, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

It never hurts to be bipartisan, and it definitely never hurts for the other guy's base to be divided.

Luckily for Mark Schauer, both of these are true.

The Schauer for Congress campaign just sent out a press release announcing the "Republicans for Schauer"-- prominent Republicans from around the district and in the state government who have come out either in recent weeks or today and endorsed Senator Schauer over Tim Walberg.

BATTLE CREEK—Today several prominent Republicans announced their support for state Senator Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) over incumbent Congressman Tim Walberg, citing Schauer's ability to work across the aisle to get things done.

"Mark Schauer puts getting results for people ahead of partisan concerns," said Retired Jackson Circuit Judge Charles Nelson. "We worked together on starting the drug court that has saved our community crucial tax dollars and made the system more efficient. Mark will bring those same values to Congress."

Schauer has a long track record of partnering with Republicans on important issues. He fought side-by-side with former Congressman Joe Schwarz and Senator Carl Levin to save local jobs when the federal government threatened to close the Battle Creek Air National Guard Base. He also worked with Republicans and Democrats to pass an extension of SmartZones that could help provide incentives for economic growth in south central Michigan.

"Losing your home to foreclosure happens to both Republicans and Democrats and that hurts all of us," said Jim Logue, former Michigan State Housing Development Authority director under John Engler. "I know Mark has a deep understanding of the importance of a well-functioning housing finance system, and he has a proven track record of working across party lines for the benefit of Michigan families. We need someone in Washington who will change business as usual, and I am certain Mark will do just that."

Here are the Republicans for Schauer named in the announcement:

• Joe Schwarz, former Congressman (Battle Creek)
  
• Paul DeWeese, former state representative, 2004 GOP candidate for Congress
  
• Judith Scranton, former state representative
• Susan Grimes Width, former state representative
• David Stimpson, current Lenawee County Commissioner (Tecumseh)
  
• Charles Nelson, Retired Jackson Circuit Judge
• Jim Logue, Governor John Engler's Housing Development Authority Director

Besides Joe Schwarz, Stimpson strikes me as the biggest name there for purposes of the campaign, as a current officeholder, unopposed in November, and with connections in Lenawee County.

This, of course, brings the obvious question: Are you a Republican? Are you rejecting Tim Walberg's closed-mindedness and supporting Mark Schauer?

If you have Republican friends who aren't crazy about Tim Walberg, you might want to let them know that Joe Schwarz, David Stimpson, and the Republicans that worked with Mark Schauer every day in state government have decided to support Schauer.

All of these people have met and know Tim Walberg. They still picked Schauer.

Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Moderate Republicans, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced in July that it would be reserving $1.5 million in advertising time in Michigan's 7th District. The Politico.com brings us the response from the National Republican Congressional Committee:

The Republicans' campaign arm in the House has reserved another round of television ads to prop up their vulnerable GOP colleagues this fall.

[...]

With this latest round of reservations, the NRCC will be playing defense in 21 of the 26 races where the committee has secured airtime. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has secured time in many of these districts - a strong sign that the party in power could pad its majority in the House this fall.

[...]

In Michigan, the NRCC has reserved $618,000 to protect veteran Rep. Joe Knollenberg and $832,000 to help freshman Rep. Tim Walberg.

(Emphasis added.)

There's really not much more to say here. The GOP is playing defense, and, for now, has decided that Tim Walberg is worth fighting to protect. But when the DCCC has more cash-on-hand than the NRCC ($56,456,584 to $14,233,074 as of the end of July), they'll be able to push hard across all 21 districts that the NRCC is defending and more. When faced with limited resources, I still say there's a chance the Republican leaders may choose to protect an older incumbent (and longtime friend) over the freshman from Michigan.

Of course, Walberg has the Club for Growth and now Freedom's Watch on his side, so there'll still be plenty of money available to rush to his defense.

Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Advertising, DCCC, NRCC, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

Polls have been open since 7:00am and close at 8:00pm. For information on voting, click here. To find your polling place, click here.

I might be a little late with results tonight, but you can see them yourself here.

Share your primary election story. Did you vote for Walberg, Renier, or Schauer? If you're in Jackson County, who do you want to win the county clerk race? In Lenawee County, how about the sheriff's race? In Calhoun County, what do you think will happen in the state representatives candidates' primary?

This is an exciting day. I'll be voting soon myself.

UPDATE: For those interested, the Schauer campaign is holding a post-election party in Delta Township:

WHO: Mark Schauer
7th district supporters and volunteers

WHAT: Democratic Primary Election Party

WHEN: TODAY, August 5
Party begins at 8:30 p.m.
Schauer to speak at 9:30 p.m.

WHERE: R-Club
6409 Centurion Drive
Lansing, MI

WHY: The winner of the Democratic primary will take on Congressman Tim Walberg in the general election for Michigan's 7th Congressional district on November 4.

I'm not able to make it, but if any loyal readers are interested in going and reporting back, that'd be a great use of the "Submit Content" feature. No word yet about a Renier party.

I'm actually going to go vote now.

Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg

In case anyone's looking for a different perspective, I thought I'd give a link to a relatively new blog I just discovered, which argues in favor of Congressman Tim Walberg: Walberg Country.

Thus far, it looks like it's fairly well-written and doesn't take the provocative stance other blogs take. There's no information given on who's behind it or how to contact him or her, but that's fine, too. I don't expect to agree with much of anything written there, but it'll certainly be worth following as we approach November.

Labels: Netroots, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

As a follow-up to my post last week about Libertarian Candidate Ken Proctor, I thought I needed to finish up the minor party field in advance of the Green Party convention this weekend in Marshall. In both 2004 and 2006, the U.S. Taxpayers Party, Michigan's branch of the Constitution Party, fielded candidate David Horn.

David Horn, for those that remember, was an interesting candidate. After Joe Schwarz won the 2004 primary over Brad Smith and Tim Walberg, I heard rumors that Walberg was telling people to support Horn-- the U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee-- instead of Schwarz, the Republican nominee. I never saw any proof of that, but if it were true, it might explain Horn's better-than-anticipated performance in 2004:

Republican Schwarz 176,053 59%

Democratic Renier 109,527 36%

Taxpayers Horn 9,032 3%

Green Seagraves 3,996 1%

Libertarian Proctor 3,034 1%

Now, three percent isn't much, but it's more than the other two minor party totals combined and came after a pretty much non-existent campaign. As an example, for the 2004 cycle, he raised a total of $9,838, which was less than Green Party candidate Jason Seagraves' $10,275. In getting three percent of the vote, Horn was the most successful third-party congressional candidate in Michigan that year.

In 2006, Horn was once again the nominee. However, he took an unusual strategy: he told people to vote for Tim Walberg. From my coverage two years ago:

More news this week from the Battle Creek Enquirer:

U.S. Taxpayer candidate David Horn is not making a serious run for office.

He does not intend on investing in his election efforts before the Nov. 7 election or doing much campaigning.

It's not often that you have a candidate that comes out publicly to say that he doesn't want the job he's running for, so of course this caught my attention.

[...]

"Basically, for anyone to want to vote for me, they'd have to be too Libertarian to vote for Walberg, and too conservative to vote for the Libertarian (Robert Hutchinson)," Horn said. "That's a pretty, pretty narrow focus there."

While Horn doesn't want Democrat Sharon Renier in office, he thinks it would be good if Walberg were elected.

"I'd probably be a Republican if more Republicans thought as he did," Horn said.

Horn said he agrees with Walberg's stances on "probably 90 percent of the issues."

(Emphasis added)

In that post, I then proceeded to describe some of David Horn's positions and those of the Constitution Party and the U.S. Taxpayers Party. Here's an example:

I support abolition of the income tax and repeal of the 16^th Amendment. I wish to restore taxation to that prescribed by our Founders: tariffs and excise taxes.

It's not quite Walberg's FairTax, but it's pretty close.

Given this near-endorsement of Tim Walberg, how did David Horn fair in the 2006 election?

Republican Walberg 122,640 51%

Democratic Renier 112,623 46%

Libertarian Hutchinson 3,787 2%

Taxpayers Horn 3,664 1%

Ah! He was back to where most minor parties belong.

Now that 2008 is here, has David Horn decided that the 10 percent of differences between him and Tim Walberg are too much? Will he or some other brave and conservative voice stand up and be heard? Will someone stand up to fight for the far-far-far-far-right of our district?

Well, no. The party did not nominate a candidate for Michigan's 7th Congressional District this year. Apparently, they decided Tim Walberg was already doing a great job representing the folks who are so conservative that they find the mainstream Republican Party to be too liberal.

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

NOTE: Edited, because on the first pass, I forgot this disclaimer.

Labels: 2004 Election, 2006 Election, 2008 Election, David Horn, Fundraising, Republican Party, Tim Walberg, US Taxpayers Party

From RealClearPolitics:

National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Cole has had a rough few months, his party having lost three straight special elections and lagging seriously behind in fundraising. But the Oklahoman is back on his proverbial horse, using the Fourth of July recess to hit the campaign trail on behalf of endangered Republican incumbents and promising challengers in the upper Midwest.

[...]

Today, Cole is in Michigan to stump with endangered Rep. Tim Walberg in a district that encompasses Battle Creek and the Ann Arbor suburbs. Walberg's Seventh District is a top target for national Democrats, who have high hopes for State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer (For more on the race, see Greg Bobrinskoy's write-up from last week).

It's not a lot, but it caught my attention. I hadn't heard anything about this visit, and it's not listed on Walberg's campaign website. My best guess is that means Congressman Cole is here to raise money. He's a low-profile party leader, who can lean on local contributors but isn't a high enough profile to justify a public event.

How helpful is someone like Tom Cole to Tim Walberg? Well, actually, not very helpful at all. He might accomplish something on this trip, but Cole has fundraising problems of his own-- namely, that he's bad at it.

As of May, the National Republican Congressional Committee had $6.7 million on-hand. That sounds impressive, except that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $47.2 million cash-on-hand. This is a significant difference.

Unfortunately for Tim Walberg, Tom Cole just isn't that good at his job. His attempts to recruit top-tier challengers against Democrats in Congress have been called a "disaster" by fellow Republicans, he has had a public feud with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), and Republican members of Congress aren't willing to raise money for the NRCC.

But Congressman Cole's problems don't end there. Under his watch, the NRCC was hit by a massive scandal, involving the committee's treasurer stealing $725,000 from the committee. That's not good, and, while it started prior to Cole's tenure as NRCC chair, it all came out under him. This is not the sort of thing that impresses potential contributors.

In fact, it's so bad for Tom Cole that the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives is actively looking for a way to get rid of him. From The Hill, via Swing State Project:

House GOP leaders spent Thursday trying to put the best spin on the disappointing defeat by publicly relaunching a legislative agenda they unveiled a day earlier complete with a new slogan: the “change America deserves.” Privately, however, GOP leaders were considering their options, as well as reaching out to possible replacements for National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.).

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) has not shut down speculation about Cole, opting against saying Cole will complete the cycle as NRCC chairman.

[...]

Finding an appropriate way to get rid of Cole, though, remains the primary obstacle, the source said.

“Leadership can’t fire Tom Cole,” the former staffer said. “If they could, yes, they would. It doesn't appear that the conference wants to self-initiate, but people at the leadership table think he needs to step down and he needs to step down soon.”

(Emphasis added.)

That's right. Tim Walberg is getting help from the guy that no one likes. If Walberg is hoping to impress the top Republican donors, especially former Schwarz supporters who might not be fans of Walberg, Tom Cole might not be the most effective strategy.

Of course, the very fact that Congressman Walberg needs Cole's help sends a worrying message for Walberg. It reminds local Republicans once again that he's in trouble this year, and that they made a horrible mistake by getting rid of Joe Schwarz.

Schwarz won an open seat election by a margin of 59 percent to 36 percent. Had he not been defeated by Walberg in the 2006 primary, he would have won reelection easily. Can we say the same about Tim Walberg? No.

A peculiar obstacle for Michigan Rep. Tim Walberg's reelection hopes is that he will likely face a Democratic opponent who can claim similar, if not more incumbent-like, advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and political experience within the district.

A top target of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Republican Walberg will face one of two experienced Democrats competing in the primary held August 3. Although Democrat Sharon Renier has reasonably high name recognition from running in the last two races, having barely lost to Walberg in 2006 despite being outspent $1.2 million to $56,000, State Senator and Democratic Minority Leader Mark Schauer is expected to win the primary and is a favorite of national Democrats.

With leadership experience, the support of party leaders, and a state senate district that covers about 40% of the Seventh Congressional District, which takes in Battle Creek and the western suburbs of Ann Arbor, along the Indiana border, Schauer has high name recognition and will make for a formidable opponent in November. Too, in the last three fundraising quarters, Schauer has not only dwarfed Renier in fundraising, but he has beaten out Walberg as well.

(Emphasis added.)

Ouch. RealClearPolitics paints a pretty hopeless picture for Walberg. Do you really think Tom Cole will be able to help?

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, NRCC, Republican Party, Tim Walberg, Tom Cole

Got $1,000? How about $5,000? Then you're good enough to see Tim Walberg and George W. Bush!

Tonight, President George W. Bush will be coming to Livonia, Michigan, to raise money for Congressman Tim Walberg and the other members of the Michigan Congressional delegation. Sadly, it's too late to RSVP, so if you haven't already purchased your $1,000 ticket or paid $5,000 for a photo with the president, you missed your chance.

Here's the invitation (click for a larger image):

Now, don't be fooled. Congressman Walberg is listed last because of alphabetical order, but he's probably the one who's most in need of this fundraiser. This is the race already rated as a toss-up by Roll Call and the Cook Political Report, both of which are generally conservative in their ratings. There's no doubt that Walberg, who's fundraising has been lagging behind Mark Schauer, and who was out-raised by David Nacht last year, will appreciate some cash from Bush donors.

Though, I couldn't help but notice the little note at the bottom of the invitation:

Photo identification required for entry.
Video cameras are prohibited. Still photography is permitted; however, cameras
with video recording capability must have the video function disabled.

So, not only do you have to pay $1,000 just to get in the door, but you have to leave any video equipment behind, because they don't want any evidence of what was being said to make it out into the rest of the world.

A few observations:

Tim Walberg doesn't want you to know about it.

The fundraiser is taking place outside the 7th District, and no district newspaper has even mentioned it-- the only press coverage that mentions both Walberg and Bush with this event has been in the Detroit News. You will find no mention of this on Walberg's House website or campaign website.

President Bush is very unpopular.

Nationwide, an LA Times/Bloomberg poll taken between June 19 and June 23 put President Bush's positive rating at 24 percent and his negative rating at 68 percent. In Michigan, the Detroit News article mentioned above cites an EPIC/MRA poll that puts President Bush's job approval at a mere 22 percent for our state. Way back in March, a Detroit News/WXYZ poll of the 7th District found that in our district, with 47 percent Republicans or lean-Republican independents, Bush received only a 37 percent positive rating and a 62 percent negative rating. This was in March, when Bush was polling at 33 percent positive nationwide (according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll), so Bush has probably dropped in our district by a comparable margin.

(In the Detroit News/WXYZ poll of this district in March, Tim Walberg received a 39 percent positive rating and a 38 percent negative, dangerous territory for an incumbent.)

Republican elitists?

Tim Walberg won't let you see him and the president together unless you pay a minimum of $1,000 for this posh leadership dinner, a dinner which will directly benefit him, and will take place outside of this district.

Meanwhile, state Senator Mark Schauer, one of the Democratic candidates running to replace Walberg, is holding a repeat of the Pasty Pie challenge he held last fall:

Our goal is to reach 100 donations between now and June 30. We will select a winner at random, and I will come to that person’s house and make a pasty pie for you and your family – and do the dishes!

Here's the video from Jackson TV of Schauer cooking a pasty:



Sharon Renier, the other Democrat running in the 7th District, is also holding an event soon-- "Votestock 2008" (.pdf), and all-day event featuring food and music, all to be held on Sharon Renier's own farm.

So, when you compare Tim Walberg's event to his Democratic challengers, I have to ask, how is it that we're the people with the "elitist" reputation?

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, George W. Bush, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg

Update: Oops. As pointed out in a comment, the decision was already made, a couple of days before I posted this. See, when I see an interesting article, I bookmark it to come back to later. This one (as with many lately) I came back to a couple of weeks later, and failed to check my facts before hand.

Congressman Schwarz was not selected. Still, everything nice I say below still stands, and I wish Schwarz luck in any future pursuits.

----

Don't worry, "Schwarz Watch" doesn't mean I'm planning on starting another blog. However, while not necessarily connected with Congressman Tim Walberg's adventures in Washington (and the need to end them this November), I thought this was worth mentioning. Susan Demas brought us this earlier this month:

President Joe Schwarz?

Could be, if Wayne State University taps him to take the reins from outgoing President Irvin Reid. Schwarz, a former Battle Creek congressman, confirmed today he is a finalist for the top job at Michigan's third-largest university.

A former Senator, WSU School of Medicine graduate and mediator in the ongoing feud between the med school and Detroit Medical Center (DMC), Schwarz is considered by legislators and insiders to be a nontraditional but formidable candidate.

[...]

Given the fact that Wayne State has gone to the Legislature for financial assistance, the university may be in the hunt for an experienced legislator to help, which could give Schwarz a leg up.

"He is the only person in the candidate pool being considered with the breadth of experience to fulfill the job," said Democratic former Sen. John Kelly, also a former WSU regent. "The No. 1 issue for Wayne State with its ever-reliance on government funding . . . is getting a respectful hearing from the Legislature and only Sen. Schwarz can provide that."

But the Democratic WSU Board of Governors reportedly has reservations about Schwarz, who was elected in the Legislature and Congress as a Republican but who is now an independent.

However, Liz Boyd, spokeswoman for Gov. Jennifer Granholm said, "the Governor has always spoken very highly of Sen. Schwarz." Granholm appointed Schwarz to the 2007 Emergency Financial Advisory Panel on the state's budget crisis.

Rep. Paul Condino, D-Southfield, chair of the WSU Warrior Caucus, said Schwarz would be a "tremendous" president.

"Having Dr. Schwarz in any room is helpful," Condino said today. "He has an ability to break down an issue. Both he and I share the sentiment to passionately support Wayne State."

[...]

Schwarz said he was "honored to be considered," describing himself as a "loyal and proud graduate" of the medical school in 1964.

"Higher education was my passion and forte all my years in the Legislature," said Schwarz, the former Senate Appropriations Higher Education Subcommittee Chair and a member of the Department of Defense's blue-ribbon panel on the Walter Reed Army Medical Center. "I have been intimately involved in a multiplicity of activities in Michigan. But higher education was the most important reason for my time in the Legislature for many, many years."

Regardless of the outcome of the search, Schwarz said Wayne State and his other alma mater, the University of Michigan, "will always have my time."

Schwarz also confirmed DMC had asked him to be president of Harper Hospital, but he felt he "wasn't exceptionally qualified to be president of a large urban hospital." The WSU presidency is a much better fit, he said.

(Emphasis added.)

I've mentioned it before, but it's worth repeating that I have an enormous amount of respect for Congressman Schwarz. I never voted for him, as I'm a progressive Democrat and he's a right-leaning moderate Republican-turned-independent, but he's more than qualified for just about any job he would want. More than that he is (or at least comes across as) a genuinely decent person. I started Walberg Watch in part out of disgust for the way Walberg and his friends at the Club for Growth treated an honorable public servant.

Of course, Demas brings politics into the article at the very end. It makes sense, and is also my justification for posting this story here.

Although Democrats don't think Schwarz will run as an independent in the 7th Congressional district this year, some see that as a possibility. If Schwarz were to get the WSU job, a 7th Congressional District run would be taken off the table, which would arguably benefit Democratic challenger Sen. Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek.

Schwarz was quoted by Tim Skubick as saying he wouldn't run, but I'm sure there's that tiny little piece of him that wants to get back into the race. So, yeah, there is the partisan Democrat piece of me that hopes he gets the Wayne State University job to prevent him from making an independent run and splitting the anti-Walberg vote.

But mostly, I hope he gets the job because he deserves it, and, while I don't know much about these things, I think he'd be good at it.

Goodluck, Congressman Schwarz, regardless of what you choose to do.

Labels: 2008 Speculation, Education, Joe Schwarz, Republican Party

Yesterday was the filing deadline, meaning that the candidates we already knew about-- Tim Walberg (R), Sharon Renier (D), and Mark Schauer (D)-- will be the only major-party candidates in the 7th District. I was so hoping for a GOP primary, but it appears to have been wishful thinking.

Over the next few days, I'd like to spend some time looking at the other races which might have an impact on the congressional race. It's important to remember that this isn't happening in a vacuum, and what other Democrats and Republicans running in our state do will have an impact on the contest which this blog follows. The big one, obviously, is the presidential race, followed by U.S. Senator Carl Levin's reelection bid. I hope to talk about other races, too, from county commissioners to the state Supreme Court, always through the lens of the 7th District.

Tonight, however, I'd like to begin with the Michigan House of Representatives.

The 7th Congressional District includes all or part of eight state House districts. The individuals who represent each district may not themselves live in the 7th District, but their political strength as they run for office has an impact. (Note: the Michigan Senate is not up for reelection this year, nor is the governor.)

Listed below are the state House districts which comprise the 7th Congressional District, and my (brief) take on the 2008 elections in each.

HD052 - Pam Byrnes (D)

Pam Byrnes (D-Chelsea) represents this district, which makes up the majority of Washtenaw County (essentially, everything except Ann Arbor and the far east and south-east portions). Her district, which includes areas not in the 7th, is not solidly Democratic, having been represented for a long time by Gene DeRossett (R-Manchester), who was also a candidate in the GOP primary in 2004.

In 2002, Byrnes defeated David Nacht (one-time 2008 candidate for Congress) in the Democratic primary, only to lose to DeRossett 53 to 47. When DeRossett retired/ran for Congress in 2004, Byrnes was back, winning the seat over Republican Joseph Yekulis 55 to 45. She was reelected in 2006 with about 63 percent of the vote.

So, it's a lean-Democratic area (and growth of Ann Arbor only helps), but 2006 could have been a fluke in a wave election, and 2002 and 2004 were reasonably close. Byrnes is in good shape to be reelected to her third and final term (term limits). In a situation like this, one might expect the Republicans to field a reasonably strong candidate to run, build name recognition, and come back to win in 2010. It's exactly what Byrnes did and what many others have done before.

Unfortunately for the GOP, that's not what they did. Representative Pam Byrnes (D) was the only candidate to file in the 52nd House District. What does this mean? There's now a popular Democrat who is more or less guaranteed reelection this fall. The vast majority of voters will be checking at least one box with a "D," and Byrnes will likely be working hard to convince the voters in her district to check a few more.

In 2006, Sharon Renier only won the Washtenaw County portion of the district 50 percent to 47 percent. In 2008, I'm guessing Byrnes could help us improve that margin.

HD057 - Dudley Spade (D)

The 57th District (my own district) is represented by Dudley Spade (D-Tipton). The district encompasses all of Lenawee County except for Cambridge Township in the north. Now, some history. For 16 years, a man named Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) represented Lenawee County in the state House of Representatives. It was a conservative county, and it fit him quite well and liked reelecting him. Then, in 1996, a popular WLEN radio host named Doug Spade (D-Adrian) challenged Walberg for his seat. Spade didn't win, but he performed surprisingly well.

When Walberg retired in 1998, Doug Spade was back, and won the seat. He was subsequently reelected in 2000 and 2002 by increasing margins-- he got 69.4 percent of the vote in 2002. Spade was a perfect for Lenawee County, representing its interests well while gently nudging it away from the far-right conservatism of Tim Walberg. More than that, Spade connected with the people of his district.

In 2004, Doug was term-limited out and his brother Dudley Spade ran for the same seat. It's a sign of the strength of the Spade brand that he won his first term with about 59 percent over David Abraham (R-Tecumseh) in a year where John Kerry only got 45 percent. In 2006, Spade was supposed to get a strong challenge in Jim Koehn (R-Adrian), and ended up winning about 67 percent.

Going into 2008, Spade's challenger will be Emma Jenkins (R-Adrian), who filed Monday. Jenkins hasn't held elected office since the early 1980s (on a township board), but she's active in the local GOP as a "footsoldier." Still, she lacks the name identification Abraham (a county commissioner) and Koehn (a prominent travel agent) had, and Spade is still pretty popular. Indeed, it's a bad sign for your candidacy when the worst thing you can say about your opponent is:

Jenkins said she is looking forward to carrying the party banner in this year’s election against an opponent whom she also considers a friend.

“He’s just in the wrong party,” Jenkins said.

She is running, Jenkins said, because she believes it is important to work for a Republican majority in the state House. In holding the seat as a Democrat, she said, Spade strengthens Democrats’ efforts in Lansing on such issues as Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s Great Start pre-school programs.

Or, in other words, "I'd vote for you if you were a Republican, and I don't like that you're helping educate children!" The problem is, the people of Lenawee County aren't partisan enough for this to be a motivating factor. They might lead Republican, but they like Dudley Spade. He should win reelection pretty easily.

Depending on how popular Spade is and how good of a relationship he has with the Democratic nominee for Congress, he might have coattails similar to Byrnes. This could be a big deal, especially if Mark Schauer is really polling even with Walberg in Lenawee County. If Walberg can't count on Lenawee County, he's in trouble.

HD058 - Bruce Caswell (R)

Bruce Caswell (R-Pittsford) was first elected in 2002, representing a district spanning Hillsdale and Branch Counties, the two most reliably conservative counties in the 7th District. Caswell was elected and reelected by increasing percentages (66.9, 72.7, and 72.8 percent), but he's term-limited out for 2008.

There are four Republicans hoping to replace him-- Kenneth Kurtz (R-Coldwater), Frank Plodzik (R-Coldwater), Don Shemel (R-Coldwater), and Steve Vear (R-Hillsdale). I'll admit right now, I haven't got the foggiest idea how this primary will turn out, but if it's particularly divisive, it might give the only Democrat running a chance.

Her name is Jean Anne Kennedy-Windsor (D-Reading). I know very little about her, except that she was a candidate for uncommitted delegate at the 7th District convention earlier this year and that she was formerly known as Jean Elinor Perego. Still, I'm hopeful that she can put together a strong campaign and take advantage of Republicans who will be largely ignoring her. The better she can build the Democratic brand, the better her chances in November and the better our chances of ousting Tim Walberg.

HD062 - Mike Nofs (R)

Ah, Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek). He's the foe of Calhoun County Democrats, winning Mark Schauer's seat when he moved from the House to the Senate. He won three elections (2002, 2004, 2006) with roughly the same share of the vote (53.2, 53.4, and 53.6 percent, respectively) in a district that went to John Kerry by 50.1 percent. But while Nofs might be eying Schauer's Senate seat if Schauer wins, Nofs can't run for reelection in 2008.

This will probably be one of the hardest-fought state House districts in Michigan, with Susan Baldwin (R-Battle Creek) and Gregory Moore (R-Athens) facing Tim Nendorf (D-Battle Creek) and Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek). Being from the opposite end of the district, I don't have a good read of the primary for either party, but I have no doubt that all four are potentially strong candidates. Segal is currently chair of the Calhoun County Commission, and Nendorf is a young law student (23 years old) who has interned with Mark Schauer and Carl Levin.

Regardless of the nominees, there will be a lot of energy put into this race, which will probably drive turnout up. But then, if Schauer is the Democratic nominee, one would hope he doesn't have to worry about turnout in Calhoun County.

HD063 - Lorence Wenke (R)

Although based in Kalamazoo County (and not in the 7th District), Lorence Wenke (R) represents a portion of Calhoun County. He's the Republican who, in 2006, got a little bit of attention by pointing out that the DeVos campaign was "plain dishonest." He's also not up for reelection, after winning in 2002, 2004, and 2006 with 57, 59, and 55 percent, respectively. In 2004, John Kerry got 44 percent of the vote.

Those hoping to replace Wenke are James Bolger (R-Marshall), Jerry Vander Roest (R-Galesburg), and 2006 nominee Phyllis A. Smith (D-Vicksburg). Smith managed 45 percent against Wenke and held him to his smallest margin of victory, impressive against an incumbent. Smith is also the recording secretary for the Kalamazoo County Democratic Party, which (hopefully) indicates some party support.

Like other districts, I don't have a good read of how it might play out. However, we can once again hope for a tough GOP primary that will allow Smith to get her name out and contact voters. It's a winnable district and an open seat, and she should have some name recognition from the 2006 election. With any luck, this will be one more reason for Calhoun County Democrats to turn out in November.

HD064 - Martin Griffin (D)

Now we're into Jackson County, which has been the source of lots of excitement. Martin Griffin (D-Jackson) represents the western portion of the county and the city of Jackson, a district that had been solidly held by former Representative and 2004 congressional candidate Clark Bisbee (R-Jackson). In 2004, Rick Baxter (R-Concord Twp.) beat then-Jackson Mayor Martin Griffin 49.9 to 48.9. For those who have been paying attention, you may remember that Baxter was the state representative who said that the day they raised the minimum wage was "the worst day" of his term.

Griffin came back in 2006 to win the district about 53 percent of the vote. Baxter went on to become Tim Walberg's district director and then to leave unexpectedly, which I've covered before. He's not trying to win back his old seat, though, instead aiming for Jackson County treasurer. Baxter also serves as chairman of the Jackson County Republican Party.

So who is running against Griffin this time? Surely, after narrowly losing the seat, the GOP would recruit a top-tier challenger, right? Apparently not.

Leland Prebble (R-Spring Arbor) is the only candidate to file against Griffin. He's a retiring construction contractor, who, as far as I can find, has no previous political experience. The Citizen Patriot ran an editorial today commenting on this:

The fact that a political unknown is the only candidate Jackson County Republicans could find to run against state Rep. Martin Griffin speaks volumes about the state of local politics.

Republican Leland Prebble faces a steep climb against Griffin, the well-known former Jackson mayor. This is a strange situation when you consider this county's strong Republican heritage.

[...]

But this is not just about term limits. The local Republican Party seems to have weakened in recent years, while Democrats are gaining strength.

There is still a Republican majority on the county Board of Commissioners, and there are some Republicans running in high-profile county races: Rick Baxter for treasurer and Mickey Mortimer for clerk.

Nevertheless, in a county that has always favored Republican candidates, it's fair to question what has happened to the party that was born here more than 150 years ago.

Griffin is popular, well-known, and has a no-name opponent. Without knowing anything more, I'd put him about on the same level as Dudley Spade-- safe, soon-to-be reelected, and in a good position to help turn out voters who probably won't be voting for Tim Walberg.

HD065 - Mike Simpson (D)

This is another Jackson County district, covering essentially everything in the county that Griffin doesn't represent, plus tiny pieces of Lenawee and Eaton counties. This district has been changing representatives a lot lately-- Jerry Kratz (R) beats Sharon Renier (D-Munith) in 2002, then Mickey Mortimer (R) is elected in a 2003, and then Leslie Mortimer (R) is elected in 2004, beating 2002 7th Congressional District candidate Mike Simpson (D-Brooklyn) about 51 to 49. Simpson then returned in 2006 and won the district with about 53 percent.

In 2008, Simpson will be challenged by Ray Snell (R), the Blackman Township supervisor. I don't know anything about him, but he could potentially be a strong candidate. Simpson isn't helped, either, by two primary challengers-- Russell Severance (D), a 77-year-old who recently lost a school board election and tried to recall Simpson (the language wasn't approved), and Steven Godbehere (D), a paramedic. I don't know the details of either candidacy, though apparently Severance really doesn't like Simpson.

This is a district where the state House race might not offer any assistance to the Democratic nominee for the 7th District. The Republican could potentially be a strong opponent, and the eventual Democratic candidate might be weakened by the primary. But the district is Sharon Renier's home turf, and Mark Schauer has represented much of it in the state Senate.

HD071 - Rick Jones (R)

This is the last state House district which falls within the 7th Congressional District's boundaries. Since 2004, it has been represented by Rick Jones (R-Grand Ledge), elected in 2004 with 59 percent of the vote and reelected in 2006 with 58 percent. I don't know much about Jones (Eaton County is far away from me), nor do I know much about his challenger, Mark Eagle (D-Lansing).

Lacking any further knowledge, I'd say that Eagle has the potential to turn this into a top-tier race, but right now I'd say Jones is probably safe. Regardless of whether that's good or bad, it doesn't do anything for my primary goal, which is turning out Democratic-leaning voters for the 7th District race. Even so, Sharon Renier won Eaton County 50 to 48, which should mean there's a lot of potential for further Democratic gains.

----

So where does all of that leave us?

None of this, obviously, has been comprehensive. Instead, it's just been my first impressions as all the Michigan races begin to develop. Right now, I'd say that Democrats in the district are in a great position relative to their Republican counterparts. There are three Democratic incumbents (Byrnes, Spade, and Griffin) that I would say are very safe, and could help tremendously in building the Democratic brand and helping the Democratic nominee for the 7th District. There's one district (62) that will have a lot of activity and excitement anyway, which could help in a lean-Democratic year. Two districts (58 and 63) could potentially turn into hot races for their Democrats, depending on how they organize and how the GOP primaries play out. And two districts (65 and 71) I don't see having a major impact at all.

With all of this, I could be wrong. That said, I feel that right now, Byrnes, Spade, and Griffin are some of the best resources Mark Schauer or Sharon Renier could have for reaching out to local voters in areas where they can (and should) perform well. If those three can take advantage of their non-competitive races and help the 7th District nominee, we could be well on track for defeating Tim Walberg.

Hopefully, I'll have plenty of reason to write about all of these candidates and more as we get closer to November. I know that many of you aren't Democrats, and are here more out of a dislike of Walberg than a support for my party. Even so, I'd encourage you to learn more about some of the candidates I've talked about. We're Democrats, which means we're always eager to hear from you and convince you that we've got the right ideas.

Replacing Congressman Walberg is the primary objective of this blog. However, as the congressional race is connected to the other races going on around it, I don't think there's anything wrong with a little party-building.

Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Democratic Party, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Rick Baxter, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg

In the Adrian Daily Telegram, there was an article about Congressman Walberg's appearance at the Lenawee County Republicans' Lincoln Day Dinner. It's a pretty standard article, letting Walberg repeat his regular talking points:

“It is our duty as Americans, as Republicans and as patriots to live up to the ideals of our party,” Walberg said. “People respond to leadership, but it mustn’t flow from airy slogans of hope and change.”

That there was a swipe at Senator Barack Obama, and a subtle suggestion that if you vote for a Democrat, you don't love America.

“It’s as bad as you read about. It is broken,” he said. “The Democrats are working on a strategy of defeat in Iraq.”

That's just a lie, plain and simple. Democrats are not working on a "strategy of defeat," and Congressman Walberg knows it.

He criticized the Democrats for favoring entitlements and working to roll back the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003. He vowed to continue the fight.

That's heavy spin.

“It has been a privilege to serve, and my second term will be even better,” Walberg said.

... And that's wishful thinking.

As fun as that was, the part that caught my attention was this:

The congressman, who is seeking a second term in Washington, D.C., this year, is unopposed in the Republican primary at this time. The Democratic side is led by state Sen. Mark Schauer, who is opposed by Sharon Renier in the primary. State Sen. Cameron Brown, R-Fawn River Twp., urged the party faithful to support Walberg.

(Emphasis added.)

It might not seem like much, but just a few words in that paragraph say a lot. David Frownfelder, the reporter for the Telegram, has covered the local GOP a lot over the last few years, and I think he knew exactly what he was doing when he added "at this time" to the end of that sentence. I don't know if he knows of anyone that's getting ready to run, but it's clear that he knows there's a lot of dissent in the 7th District Republican Party right now. The fact that Cameron Brown had to urge his party to stay loyal to Walberg says a lot.

I'll admit, I have partisan reasons for wanting to see a primary challenger. If Walberg has to defend himself, then that means he has to spend money attacking someone other than Democrats. If he has to defend himself, he will be weakened in November and, once again, will be the candidate of a divided party. And if he has to defend himself, it's much less likely that he will send his supporters to vote in the Democratic Party to cause mayhem, as Republicans seem to like doing lately.

But it's not just partisanship. It's pretty clear that I run a left-leaning blog here, and I mostly seem to attract Democratic readers. Even so, I've heard from a lot of dissatisfied Republicans in the comments and in e-mails, who can't stand Democrats like me, but prefer people like me to the guy they accidentally nominated in 2006. As I've written about before, Congressman Walberg has split the 7th District Republican Party. Republicans in the district deserve a real choice and a real chance to save their party.

There's just one problem for would-be challengers: Your time is running out. The filing deadline is May 13, which is just eight days away.

With that in mind, I have a challenge and an offer to any member of the Republican Party that is thinking about challenging Tim Walberg in the primary: come to me for help. I can publicize your name, I can put you in touch with local media, I can help you get support from the many moderate Republicans that read this blog, and I'll expect nothing in exchange. All I want is for you to publicly speak out and say that you're willing to take on Congressman Walberg, and then work as hard as you can to get on the ballot. (Clark Bisbee, I'm knocking on your door... But I'll take anyone else, too!)

The Republican Party has a proud history and has helped this country grow and develop in countless ways. It was born in Jackson, Michigan way back in 1854. Don't let it die with Tim Walberg in 2008.

Labels: 2008 Speculation, Clark Bisbee, Moderate Republicans, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a program called "Red to Blue," in which they pick districts with strong Democratic candidates or weak Republicans (or both) and provide additional attention. This is purely offense, seeking to, well, turn "red" districts "blue" and elect more Democrats. (The incumbent protection program is called "Frontline.")

State Senate Majority Leader Mark Schauer, a Democratic candidate in the Michigan 7th, was selected for the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program for 2008.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the DCCC's counterpart, doesn't exactly have the same sort of thing that they publicize. However, Daily Kos front-page blogger brownsox brings us this:

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

“ROMP 2008,” presently overseen by the political operation of House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio, was recently established in papers filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). These records identify the 10 newest recipients of the program’s assistance.

These candidates make up the first batch of ROMP candidates named this year, and the third since the current election cycle began in the 2007-08 cycle. The new recipients’ election contests are outlined below.

(Emphasis added.)

In his post, brownsox is kind enough to give both the list and a startling observation:

Rep. Michelle Bachmann, MN-06
Rep. Vito Fossella, NY-13
Rep. Sam Graves, MO-06
Rep. Ric Keller, FL-08
Anne Northup, KY-03
Erik Paulsen, MN-03
Rep. Bill Sali, ID-01
Rep. Jean Schmidt, OH-02
Rep. Tim Walberg, MI-07
Darren White, NM-01

Notice that this ROMP program, ostensibly focused on regaining the Republican majority, seems disproportionately tilted towards protecting incumbent Republican Reps. In fact, out of these 10 districts where the elephants hope to ROMP, exactly one is currently held by a Democrat, John Yarmuth of Kentucky's 3rd District.

I find this to be a novel and fascinating method of Regaining Their Majority; by not targeting Democratic-held seats. I wish them the best of luck with this; I'm sure it's going to work out just splendidly. Keep avoiding the Dem-held seats, and they oughta have that ol' majority back in no time flat.

Hmm... In addition to having only $5 million cash-on-hand, while the DCCC has $38 million cash-on-hand, things don't look great for House Republicans in terms of regaining that majority.

And, in case you didn't notice it, our very own Congressman Tim Walberg made it to the ROMP list. This is a district which George W. Bush carried with 54 percent (2004), Joe Schwarz carried with 58 percent (2004), and Nick Smith carried with almost 60 percent (2002). And House Republicans think Tim Walberg has a good chance of losing it.

Hey, 7th District Republicans! I hear that Clark Bisbee is interested in running! Are you sure you want to stick with Walberg?

Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

It was a political lifetime ago, but many of you may remember the race for the 2004 Republican nomination in the 7th Congressional District. It was a big deal, and completely overshadowed the Democratic contest, in which Sharon Renier won her first Democratic nomination. Let's play "where are they now" and see what happened to the Republican field.

Here are the results of the 2004 Republican 7th District primary:

Joe Schwarz (R), 28%
Brad Smith (R), 22%
Tim Walberg (R), 18%
Clark Bisbee (R), 14%
Gene DeRossett (R), 11%
Paul DeWeese (R), 7%

Where are they now?

Joe Schwarz, no longer in Congress, is teaching at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, in addition to serving on any number of commissions at the state and federal level. We already know that he doesn't like Tim Walberg at all.

Clark Bisbee caught everyone's attention when he said, essentially, that he was interested in challenging Walberg in the primary, if anyone was interested in supporting him. Said Bisbee:

"I would love to be in Washington right now," Bisbee told MIRS. "I'll put it that way."

Bisbee said Walberg's "voting record could be better."

"He's kind of split the party here (in Jackson)," Bisbee said. "I don't know that he's endeared himself to everyone."

He does have concerns Walberg's seat won't hold this fall.

"My contention three years ago was that if I didn't win or Joe didn't win, there could be a big fight," Bisbee said. "And we could lose that fight."

So, it's pretty clear that Bisbee isn't a Walberg fan, either.

The MIRS article I quoted continued:

Other names being floated are the two other also-rans in the '04 primary, former Reps. Gene DeROSSETT and Paul DeWEESE.

I haven't heard anything about DeRossett, but it turns out Paul DeWeese might not be an option anymore for Republicans looking for an alternative to Walberg... From MIRS, via Michigan Liberal:

Former Rep. Paul DeWeese of Williamston, a one-time Republican Senate and congressional candidate, said he's changed parties and is now a Democrat.

For a number of years, the emergency room physician said he's watched a growing disconnect between the needs of people and the Republican Party's narrow "bankrupt ideology."

On one hand, Michigan has crumbling, potholed roads, yet the Legislature can't hold a reasonable discussion on investing in infrastructure improvement. The Michigan State Police (MSP) has DNA analysis technology, but so little funding that its multi-year waiting list keeps the innocent needlessly in jail, he said.

Instead of investing in mental health courts, the Republicans seem content to pad the state's region-high prison population rate. Instead of addressing health care, the Republicans' hand-off approach is causing emergency rooms to "burst at the seams."

(Emphasis added.)

Hmm. While he doesn't name Congressman Walberg specifically, the bit about "narrow 'bankrupt ideology'" sounds a lot like Tim.

DeWeese is sort of an odd fit for the Democratic Party, but I'm more than willing to welcome him with open arms. And Dr. Schwarz, too, if he'd like to come all the way and join the party.

So, that's Schwarz and DeWeese driven away from the GOP by the Walbergs of the party. Bisbee is ready to challenge Walberg in a primary, if he can find the support. Has anyone heard anything about Brad Smith or Gene DeRossett?

By the time Tim Walberg leaves office, will the 7th District have any Republicans left?

Labels: 2008 Speculation, Brad Smith, Clark Bisbee, Gene DeRossett, Joe Schwarz, Moderate Republicans, Paul DeWeese, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

Promoted back to the top... It's in the subscription-only MIRS today, but you can read a longer, (presumably) earlier draft of the article at Tim Skubick's blog. - Fitzy

It really didn't look very likely that Joe Schwarz would run again, but for those of you still holding out hope, journalist Tim Skubick brings us this:

Although the drop-dead date for filing for office is not until May, former Michigan Congressman John Schwarz is politically dropping dead before that. He will not run to regain his seat he lost to conservative Tim Walberg last time out in the Battle Creek area.

Caught on the state senate floor on Wednesday, Schwarz was asked if he would run?

"I don't think so. My plate is pretty darn full right now. It would probably be inappropriate to get in a congressional race now," he reveals for the first time.

and

He notes that the democrats have "a candidate" and as for an independent bid he laughs, "The road to higher office is strewn with the bodies of people who have run as independents."

Schwarz says he "came close but not close enough" to re-entering the contest but in the end, what he termed his "philosophical difference" with the core republican party in Michigan, kept him out of the hunt.

Schwarz says his dream job is to be Secretary of the Navy in a McCain administration. "I've thought about it, but not talked about it" with his buddy McCain who is the GOP nominee for president.

So, from the looks of it, Joe Schwarz just isn't interested in going through it again. And who can blame him? After decades of service, conservative members of his own party trashed his record and defeated him in a bitter, divisive primary. A life-long Republican, Schwarz now says he has trouble calling himself a member of the party.

As for Schwarz as Secretary of the Navy, I have no doubt he'd be well-suited to the role. However, given the condition that John McCain is elected president for that to happen, I'm kind of hoping he doesn't get that dream job. But that's presidential politics, and not what this blog is about.

This more or less settles the race into Walberg versus Schauer/Renier, with no other likely variables. However, this could change if someone like Clark Bisbee decides to challenge Walberg in the primary.

Clark (and other potential challengers), you have until May 13 by 4:00PM.

Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Joe Schwarz, John McCain, Moderate Republicans, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

Love her or hate her, Susan Demas always has interesting things to say about the 7th Congressional District. Today, she doesn't disappoint.

On a subject I've touched upon, Demas writes about the growing civil war in the Republican Party, specifically as it relates to Tim Walberg. Go read the whole article. If you're too busy or lazy for that, here's an excerpt.

It's the electability, stupid.

Conventional wisdom says ideology is king and Republicans must wheezingly lurch to the right to win in November. John McCain better pick Mitt Romney, Sean Hannity or Tom DeLay (if he's not in the slam) as veep if he wants to perk up the base.

The same debate is bobbing up in the 7th Congressional District. In the most overlooked story last week, some Michigan GOP poobahs are fishing for a candidate to knock off freshman U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in a primary.

The preacher's problems evidently go beyond the congressional cafeteria mucking up his coffee, as he recently whined to the media. The darling of the Religious Right is a top 10 Democratic target, has burned through a lot of green and is desperately struggling to raise more.

Walberg just might be able to accomplish a feat no one thought possible: He could lose the blood-red 7th District.

Though there are several good prospects - popular former state Rep. Clark Bisbee of Jackson is rarin' to go - a primary remains unlikely.

Why? Just look at 2006, when Walberg handily defeated then-U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz, an almost universally respected public servant of four decades who had won his seat with almost 60 percent of the vote.

"Republican powerbrokers can't go to the right of Tim and still be Republican," says former state Sen. Phil Hoffman, a Walberg supporter. "And Tim's shown that if you go to the left of him, he can beat you."

Hoffman knows more about the 7th District than just about anyone I know. And primaries tend to be orgies for extremists.

Really, go read the whole thing. I think it's worth it.

This is obviously a pro-Democratic, rather left-leaning blog, but I'd love to hear from any disaffected Republicans out there. Who would you like to see run? If Joe Schwarz doesn't get into the race (which, at this point, he probably won't), is there someone else you'd support? Between Walberg and Schauer or Walberg and Renier, would you pick a lesser of two evils, or would you stay home?

If you're a Republican Party leader, would you like to see Tim Walberg step aside for the good of the party? Or is it too late?

Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Moderate Republicans, Republican Party, Susan Demas, Tim Walberg

Several alert commenters have already been talking about this, but I've been slow getting around to writing about it. Sorry about that...

They say that imitation is the finest form of flattery, right? That's what I'm telling myself about the newest political website to focus on Michigan's 7th District, www.TheTruthAboutMark.com. In what may be a conservative response to Walberg Watch, the website is "dedicated to clarifying Senator Mark Schauer's stands on issues of the day."

My first comment will be this: I'm up front and open about the purpose and intentions of Walberg Watch. Right up at the top, it says "Covering and Opposing Congressman Tim Walberg, the Radical Conservative of Michigan's 7th District." I in no way claim to be an impartial source of information. The tagline given by "The Truth About Mark" makes it sound like a public service, deciphering the complicated votes that he might take in the state Senate.

It's clearly a website designed to portray Schauer in a bad light-- "Does Mark believe that Seventh District voters are bigots?" is a headline-- and I'd be a lot more impressed if they didn't try to maintain the facade of "clarifying Senator Mark Schauer's stands on issues of the day."

But that's really just a petty complaint on my part. I also don't like the color scheme or the layout, but none of that really matters.

The information they have presented thus far has some basis in fact, and they do include documentation to support their claims. Everything is heavily biased, obviously, but it's at least one or two steps better than the JoeSchwarzIsALiberal.com website the Club for Growth created in 2006. And hey, they even cite Walberg Watch for one of their pages. I feel so proud.

It's also worth noting that if this is the conservative response to Walberg Watch, I think that my own creation is far superior. Is it because I'm a talented writer? Well, no, because I'm not. Is it because I'm blinded by partisanship, and dislike all things conservative? I certainly hope not. No, the reason their website is inferior to this blog is... you.

I'm proud of the fact that I don't censor or delete comments. I don't approve what you have to say, and, while I might disagree or respond to you, you're free to say whatever you want. (There have been one or two instances where someone crossed the line, but that's only for extreme circumstances and very offensive language.)

But that's not the case for TheTruthAboutTim.com. Here's their editorial policy:

General Policy

This website highlights and clarifies the positions which Michigan State Senator Mark Schauer has taken on important governmental issues.

Because we wish for the site to focus on Senator Schauer, and not on those authors and contributors who supply content, we provide source documentation for all material that appears on this site. Viewers who disagree with any of the items presented here will thereby find it easier to approach the source to register their concerns.

Although visitors are free to suggest ideas for inclusion here, this site will be moderated, and content which the site's managers consider to be offensive or distracting will not be posted.

User Categories

Anonymous users, i.e., those who do not have user names and passwords, are allowed to see the public material posted on the site.

Registered users, who have applied for, and been granted, user names and passwords, are allowed to see both the publicly available information and the comments and posts which site visitors have made, either in response to the public material or to the various forums which we maintain here. Registered users are also allowed to submit comments for approval by the site's moderators.

Trusted users who have applied for, and been granted, more extensive privileges, are allowed to do everything that registered users do, and, in addition, to submit comments directly to the site, without going through one of our moderators.

(Emphasis added.)

Did you see that? You can't even look at the comments without registering, and anything you post has to be approved. More than that, it can be removed if it's too "distracting" from the purpose of the site.

I'm just saying, everyone is welcome at Walberg Watch, even if they disagree. Us left-wing liberal commie folks are tolerant and loving, not authoritarian and repressive.

Oh, and some trivia. I considered "The Truth About Tim" as a name for this blog when I started it, but eventually rejected it as too wordy. Now that I see essentially the same name in action, I feel I made the right choice.

In short, Walberg Watch is better. But I'll gladly admit that I'm a very biased observer. Moving on...

Who's running this, and who's paying for it? That's information you have to do some digging for.

At the bottom of every page is:

Paid for by the Seventh District Congressional Committee with regulated funds.
E-Mail Address: seventhcommittee@seven.provide.net

... and that's the only contact information given. However, the only posts made so far have been by the user wdseelig, and a WhoIs search tells us that someone named Wyckham Seelig registered the domain on October 23, 2007.

Seelig is the chairman of the 7th District Republican Party. I've got to say, it's a little refreshing to see the GOP finally catching on to the power of the internet. A little competition is always good.

But that alone is significant. When the chairman of a local political committee uses his own time and funds to build an attack website, it says something about both how worried they are about the race and how little grassroots energy they have going for them. I don't want to tell you too much about who I am, but I can assure you, I'm not the chairman of the 7th District Democratic Party, nor am I employed by the DNC.

However, the plot thickens...

The e-mail address Seelig used to register the website was with NCMS.org, the website of the National Center for Manufacturing Sciences, based in Ann Arbor. Seelig had been a program manager and then vice president with NCMS, but apparently retired a few years ago. When Rich at Michigan Liberal posted about this, he got this update from NCMS:

Update 2: I received an email from a representative of NMSC. This person informs me that Mr. Seelig retained his NMSC email because, though he was retired, he still occsionaly did projects for them. But...

NCMS was not aware Mr. Seelig was using his NCMS e-mail account as a contact address for this web site.

After our internal examination we have found no other NCMS property used to support this activity.

The account has been terminated as of February 6, 2008. In no way was he using this e-mail domain in official NCMS business or proxy.

Looks like someone didn't get the memo about using company resources for political work.

Interesting... It's nice to know that NCMS isn't trying to influence politics in any dishonest ways. Just the usual ones like lobbying and the occasional $1,000 contribution.

So what does all of this mean? I'm not sure. It could mean that Walberg supporters will have an online rallying point from which they can attack Schauer. It could mean I'll actually have to do quality blogging, just to compete.

On the other hand, this whole thing seems kind of sloppy to me. My prediction? TheTruthAboutMark.com will be completely abandoned by May. But then, I could be wrong.

I will say now that in the near future, I'm going to spend some time refuting some of the attacks Seelig makes on his website, which, honestly, won't be too hard. I don't want this to become an all-Schauer all-the-time blog, because the focus is still Walberg, but Mark Schauer is a good Democrat and a strong candidate, and, frankly, I like the guy. And I would do the same thing if the Republicans were attacking Jim Berryman, David Nacht, or Sharon Renier.

UPDATE: An anonymous commenter rightly chastised me for forgetting to point something out. Honestly, I thought I mentioned it, but apparently I didn't.

The bottom of every page says:

Paid for by the Seventh District Congressional Committee with regulated funds.

That's important, as the commenter notes:

You are neglecting the fact that the site claims to be paid for by regulated funds, but there are no legitimate reports to show which funds are used.

This is pretty important. If funds are being used to attack Schauer and are coordinated with republican operatives, there are rules which say they should be disclosed. Walberg has a history of sneaky tactics and this may be another one.

There are strict disclosure rules for political spending, especially by party committees spending "regulated funds" in support of or opposition to a candidate. If this website has been registered since October, one would think that it would have shown up in disclosure reports somewhere along the way. I haven't seen anything.

Labels: 2008 Election, Mark Schauer, Netroots, Republican Party

There's a lot that I want to write about, but I'm having a hard time finding the energy and free time to blog about the 7th District. (Those of you that know me can probably guess why.) But I couldn't pass up this.

I don't like to re-post entire articles-- especially from the subscription-only MIRS-- but hopefully they'll forgive me. A friend sent me this:

A Primary For Walberg?
When now-U.S. Rep. Tim WALBERG (R-Tipton) launched his insurgent campaign to oust Joe SCHWARZ in the 2006 primary, he said he was the true Republican in the race. Now top party officials are privately saying Walberg's real accomplishment may be losing the 7th Congressional District seat, once a GOP stronghold.

Sources close to National Republican Committeeman Chuck YOB and Committeewoman Holly HUGHES tell MIRS the pair are losing hope in Walberg, who raised almost $200,000 less than his chief Democratic challenger, Sen. Mark SCHAUER (D-Battle Creek), last quarter (See related story).

When reached today, Hughes insisted Walberg is "doing a good job."

"He's doing more fundraising than before," Hughes said. "He's making an improvement and I think you'll see over the next few months he'll be light years above where he was."

So far, the free-market Club for Growth (CFG) lobby, which helped raise more than $1 million for Walberg last cycle, hasn't opened its wallet for Walberg, but did endorse the freshman Congressman Jan. 25. Though he faced a poorly funded challenger, Walberg narrowly won the 2006 general election with less than 50 percent of the vote.

Some party officials have buyer's remorse for allowing a primary in 2006, figuring the seat would always stay red. Many conservatives in the leadership privately preferred Walberg, who shared their views against abortion, gay marriage and taxes.

Now they're saying the GOP would have been better off sticking with Schwarz, who won the 2004 general with 58 percent, thanks to his appeal with independents and Democrats.

"I would not disagree with that at all," said former Sen. Philip HOFFMAN, a Republican who represented part of the 7th District for years and supports Walberg. "If Joe won in 2006, it would be a safe seat today and Mark Schauer would be concentrating on being a good Senate Minority Leader."

That's led some Republican Party activists to quietly go hunting for a candidate to knock Walberg off in a primary. Brad SMITH, an Addison attorney who finished second in the 2004 GOP primary (Walberg came in third) won the CFG's blessing and cash in that race.

The son of former U.S. Rep Nick SMITH, who held the seat until 2004, said several people have approached him about running this year. The younger Smith said he was "flattered," but wasn't planning to be a candidate.

"How is it that more experienced politicians say it? I have no intention of running," Smith said.

Smith said he's "heard Democrats have put up a formidable candidate" against Walberg but still thinks Republicans can have a good year.

"I sense the base is starting to wake up more," he said. "The presidential election will rouse us from our sleep."

But Smith acknowledges there are some Republicans who may stay home if the more moderate U.S. Sen. John McCAIN (R-Ariz.) is the nominee, which "could be the margin in congressional races." He's also concerned that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) might not have enough cash to help its members.

Former Rep. Clark BISBEE said no one's knocked on his door, but he'd answer.

"I would love to be in Washington right now," Bisbee told MIRS. "I'll put it that way."

Bisbee said Walberg's "voting record could be better."

"He's kind of split the party here (in Jackson)," Bisbee said. "I don't know that he's endeared himself to everyone."

He does have concerns Walberg's seat won't hold this fall.

"My contention three years ago was that if I didn't win or Joe didn't win, there could be a big fight," Bisbee said. "And we could lose that fight."

Other names being floated are the two other also-rans in the '04 primary, former Reps. Gene DeROSSETT and Paul DeWEESE.

There's also Rick BAXTER, a former state rep who stepped down last year as Walberg's district director. But Baxter said today he's not given a run any thought and questioned how successful a primary could be against Walberg, who is strong with the conservative core of this southern Michigan district.

Schwarz has mulled another go-around, and has been approached to run as a Republican, independent and Democrat, but said he's focused on putting McCain in the White House.

Still, Hoffman doubts a primary will happen and thinks "at the end of the day, it's still a safe Republican seat."

"Republican powerbrokers can't go to the right of Tim and still be Republican," Hoffman said. "And Tim's shown that if you go to the left of him, he can beat you."

He also notes Yob and Hughes "don't live in the district."

Another Republican Party official also questioned if another Republican could put the organization together to knock off the sitting Congressman, whose voting record is not inconsistent with the beliefs of many of the Republican voters in this still predominately Republican district.

Evidently, Walberg has been burning up the phone lines to Yob and Hughes for months, telling them he can't raise any money.

That's borne out in Federal Elections Committee reports, which show Schauer raised $338,258 during the last quarter to Walberg's $151,741. Even though Schauer jumped into the race in August, he still has $60,000-plus more in the bank than Walberg.

Still, Walberg's campaign isn't worried.

Walberg Spokesman Joe WICKS said the Congressman's focus in 2007 was on improving health care, protecting the Great Lakes and creating jobs in the 7th Congressional District and Michigan, in general.

"Congressman Walberg is doing his job trying to turn the economy around and doing the job the people of his district elected him to do, which is represent them and fight for the issues that are important to them."

As far as the CFG goes, Wicks noted the pro-economic growth organization did endorse Walberg in late January, and there isn't any immediate concern they won't be willing to contribute to the campaign, if need be.

CFG did indicate to MIRS it could still come through for Walberg this year if he's in trouble. (See "Will CFG Be There For Walberg?" 11/18/07).

"With his excellent record, we are confident Rep. Walberg will emerge victorious again," said CFG President Pat TOOMEY in the group's endorsement.

Right now, the group's No. 1 target is taking out U.S. Rep. Wayne GILCHRIST in Maryland (just as Schwarz was in 2006). It's worth noting the Club usually only helps candidates get into office and is busy with the presidential race, running a number of ads against Mike HUCKABEE. CFG had $565,830 cash on hand as of Dec. 31.

One place Walberg may not get as much help is the cash-strapped NRCC, which last week asked the FBI to investigate fraud within its own organization. It's struggling with only $2,628,254 in cash on hand, subtracting its debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has about 15 times as much cash, with $33,735,554, minus its debt. And Republicans have 28 open seats to defend, thanks to retirements.

There's a lot to digest there, but first, here's a quick "I told you so" moment for me. I didn't mention it here, but in a comment on the blog Swing State Project, I wrote this about Mark Schauer's fundraising total:

That's pretty impressive, and probably more than Walberg raised. It'll solidify Schauer as the presumptive Democratic nominee, and if Walberg's weak this quarter, I think it might be enough to encourage a Republican primary challenge. That's just a gut feeling on my part.

Well, it was more than Walberg raised (a lot more), and now the primary challenge speculation is beginning.

So, what do you all think? Will we see a "Draft Clark Bisbee" campaign spring up?

Labels: 2008 Speculation, Clark Bisbee, Club for Growth, Gene DeRossett, Moderate Republicans, Paul DeWeese, Republican Party, Rick Baxter, Tim Walberg