A Primary For Walberg?
When now-U.S. Rep. Tim WALBERG (R-Tipton) launched his insurgent campaign to oust Joe SCHWARZ in the 2006 primary, he said he was the true Republican in the race. Now top party officials are privately saying Walberg's real accomplishment may be losing the 7th Congressional District seat, once a GOP stronghold.

Sources close to National Republican Committeeman Chuck YOB and Committeewoman Holly HUGHES tell MIRS the pair are losing hope in Walberg, who raised almost $200,000 less than his chief Democratic challenger, Sen. Mark SCHAUER (D-Battle Creek), last quarter (See related story).

When reached today, Hughes insisted Walberg is "doing a good job."

"He's doing more fundraising than before," Hughes said. "He's making an improvement and I think you'll see over the next few months he'll be light years above where he was."

So far, the free-market Club for Growth (CFG) lobby, which helped raise more than $1 million for Walberg last cycle, hasn't opened its wallet for Walberg, but did endorse the freshman Congressman Jan. 25. Though he faced a poorly funded challenger, Walberg narrowly won the 2006 general election with less than 50 percent of the vote.

Some party officials have buyer's remorse for allowing a primary in 2006, figuring the seat would always stay red. Many conservatives in the leadership privately preferred Walberg, who shared their views against abortion, gay marriage and taxes.

Now they're saying the GOP would have been better off sticking with Schwarz, who won the 2004 general with 58 percent, thanks to his appeal with independents and Democrats.

"I would not disagree with that at all," said former Sen. Philip HOFFMAN, a Republican who represented part of the 7th District for years and supports Walberg. "If Joe won in 2006, it would be a safe seat today and Mark Schauer would be concentrating on being a good Senate Minority Leader."

That's led some Republican Party activists to quietly go hunting for a candidate to knock Walberg off in a primary. Brad SMITH, an Addison attorney who finished second in the 2004 GOP primary (Walberg came in third) won the CFG's blessing and cash in that race.

The son of former U.S. Rep Nick SMITH, who held the seat until 2004, said several people have approached him about running this year. The younger Smith said he was "flattered," but wasn't planning to be a candidate.

"How is it that more experienced politicians say it? I have no intention of running," Smith said.

Smith said he's "heard Democrats have put up a formidable candidate" against Walberg but still thinks Republicans can have a good year.

"I sense the base is starting to wake up more," he said. "The presidential election will rouse us from our sleep."

But Smith acknowledges there are some Republicans who may stay home if the more moderate U.S. Sen. John McCAIN (R-Ariz.) is the nominee, which "could be the margin in congressional races." He's also concerned that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) might not have enough cash to help its members.

Former Rep. Clark BISBEE said no one's knocked on his door, but he'd answer.

"I would love to be in Washington right now," Bisbee told MIRS. "I'll put it that way."

Bisbee said Walberg's "voting record could be better."

"He's kind of split the party here (in Jackson)," Bisbee said. "I don't know that he's endeared himself to everyone."

He does have concerns Walberg's seat won't hold this fall.

"My contention three years ago was that if I didn't win or Joe didn't win, there could be a big fight," Bisbee said. "And we could lose that fight."

Other names being floated are the two other also-rans in the '04 primary, former Reps. Gene DeROSSETT and Paul DeWEESE.

There's also Rick BAXTER, a former state rep who stepped down last year as Walberg's district director. But Baxter said today he's not given a run any thought and questioned how successful a primary could be against Walberg, who is strong with the conservative core of this southern Michigan district.

Schwarz has mulled another go-around, and has been approached to run as a Republican, independent and Democrat, but said he's focused on putting McCain in the White House.

Still, Hoffman doubts a primary will happen and thinks "at the end of the day, it's still a safe Republican seat."

"Republican powerbrokers can't go to the right of Tim and still be Republican," Hoffman said. "And Tim's shown that if you go to the left of him, he can beat you."

He also notes Yob and Hughes "don't live in the district."

Another Republican Party official also questioned if another Republican could put the organization together to knock off the sitting Congressman, whose voting record is not inconsistent with the beliefs of many of the Republican voters in this still predominately Republican district.

Evidently, Walberg has been burning up the phone lines to Yob and Hughes for months, telling them he can't raise any money.

That's borne out in Federal Elections Committee reports, which show Schauer raised $338,258 during the last quarter to Walberg's $151,741. Even though Schauer jumped into the race in August, he still has $60,000-plus more in the bank than Walberg.

Still, Walberg's campaign isn't worried.

Walberg Spokesman Joe WICKS said the Congressman's focus in 2007 was on improving health care, protecting the Great Lakes and creating jobs in the 7th Congressional District and Michigan, in general.

"Congressman Walberg is doing his job trying to turn the economy around and doing the job the people of his district elected him to do, which is represent them and fight for the issues that are important to them."

As far as the CFG goes, Wicks noted the pro-economic growth organization did endorse Walberg in late January, and there isn't any immediate concern they won't be willing to contribute to the campaign, if need be.

CFG did indicate to MIRS it could still come through for Walberg this year if he's in trouble. (See "Will CFG Be There For Walberg?" 11/18/07).

"With his excellent record, we are confident Rep. Walberg will emerge victorious again," said CFG President Pat TOOMEY in the group's endorsement.

Right now, the group's No. 1 target is taking out U.S. Rep. Wayne GILCHRIST in Maryland (just as Schwarz was in 2006). It's worth noting the Club usually only helps candidates get into office and is busy with the presidential race, running a number of ads against Mike HUCKABEE. CFG had $565,830 cash on hand as of Dec. 31.

One place Walberg may not get as much help is the cash-strapped NRCC, which last week asked the FBI to investigate fraud within its own organization. It's struggling with only $2,628,254 in cash on hand, subtracting its debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has about 15 times as much cash, with $33,735,554, minus its debt. And Republicans have 28 open seats to defend, thanks to retirements.

That's pretty impressive, and probably more than Walberg raised. It'll solidify Schauer as the presumptive Democratic nominee, and if Walberg's weak this quarter, I think it might be enough to encourage a Republican primary challenge. That's just a gut feeling on my part.

Labels: 2008 Speculation, Clark Bisbee, Club for Growth, Gene DeRossett, Moderate Republicans, Paul DeWeese, Republican Party, Rick Baxter, Tim Walberg

posted by Fitzy  # 2:27 AM