I think that this is interesting. Compared to this time last year-- when there was no election-- and this time in 2006, traffic to Walberg Watch is down, but not by all that much. Why is this interesting? Well, frankly, because I've fallen down on the job and fallen behind. Life got in the way. And even so, people keep visiting Walberg Watch. Thank you, everyone, and especially to everyone that has e-mailed me over the last few weeks.

Even though I've been a little quieter, I still absolutely believe that Mark Schauer is the right man for the job, and Tim Walberg absolutely has to go.

I've simply run out of time to give everything the time it deserves, but here are some interesting last-minute items:

-----

The Michigan Republican Party put out this advertisement:



What's the problem? The photo of Mark Schauer slowly floating down the screen was stolen from a progressive blogger. According to Chris Gautz at the Citizen Patriot, two more photos were also stolen from the same blogger for use in direct mail pieces.

That's just a low move.

-----

Speaking of Chris Gautz, he'll be holding a liveblog tomorrow night following the results. I don't always agree with the conclusions he reaches, but it's worth checking out. Chris has a fun writing style and tells it as he sees it.

And besides, I'll be away from a computer until about 9:30pm, so there's a chance Walberg Watch won't have anything exciting for a while. You've got to have somewhere to go.

-----

There have been a lot of pre-Election Day "Walberg, Schauer in tight race" stories or "Candidates make final push" stories. If you're at Walberg Watch looking for more information, chances are you've already read one of them or you could write one yourself. Still, here's a small sample:

Schauer talks jobs at local visit - Daily Telegram
Candidates make final push as election nears - Jackson Citizen Patriot
Campaign for Congress down to final moments - Battle Creek Enquirer

-----

Former Congressman Nick Smith-- who served the district from 1993 to 2005-- endorsed Congressman Tim Walberg for reelection. It's not a huge surprise. His son, Brad Smith, had actually gotten the Club for Growth endorsement over Tim Walberg in 2004, and no one has ever said either Smith was anything other than conservative. I think I might also remember having seen Smith contribute to Walberg sometime in the last two years, though I'm not totally sure.

Still, it's a significant endorsement, and worth reporting.

-----

In mid-October, President George W. Bush was in Grand Rapids for a fundraising trip, and Congressman Tim Walberg was a major beneficiary.

George W. Bush was here, helping Tim Walberg.

I've got no further comment.

-----

In case you're one of the many people every day that comes to Walberg Watch following a Google search for polling on the race, Pollster.com has a handy graph that shows the polling trend of the race. Sadly, there's been very little independent, public polling.

-----

Remember to vote. Sure, you have to pay taxes and obey the laws in this country. But your right to vote makes up for all of those mild inconveniences.

Bob Schieffer of CBS News said this at the conclusion of the third presidential debate:

I'll leave you tonight with what my mother always said: Go vote now. It'll make you feel big and strong.

That's right.

If I've missed anything you think is important, leave it in the comments.

Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Endorsements, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Republican Party, Tim Walberg

Every now and then, a politician does something stupid that doesn't actually matter, but makes us all feel better about ourselves. When Barack Obama accidentally said he had visited "fifty-seven states," he didn't actually mean it. He was tired and he misspoke.

But it's fun to make fun of that anyway, just like it's fun to make fun of a minor mistake made by Congressman Tim Walberg, which the Schauer campaign jumped on, while noting a previous mistake:

WALBERG SPELLS OWN NAME WRONG
Tim "A in English" Walberg continues to struggle with spelling

BATTLE CREEK—Earlier this year, Congressman Tim Walberg was recognized at the U.S. Capitol by U.S. English, Inc. and honored with an "A in English" award based on his votes for English-only legislation. Unfortunately, the press release announcing the news included an unfortunate spelling error, referring to the Congressman's "constitutents": [Link]

A recent fundraising letter sent out by the Walberg campaign contained another unfortunate spelling error – this time it was the Congressman's own name (see attached).

"Hey, we all make typos sometimes," said Schauer spokesman Zack Pohl. "It's no big deal – they could've spelled the Congressman's last name B-U-S-H and nobody would be able to tell the difference."

(Emphasis added.)

And before anyone says anything, it wasn't just some staffer mis-typing something. This was a handwritten fundraising appeal which was passed on to the Schauer campaign. Shown below, Walberg spells his name two different ways:


and


Now, the actual story here is the panicked, last-minute fundraising appeal for "anything you can send," but that's not nearly as much fun as the spelling error.

Then again, I have a tough to spell last name too, so I understand, Congressman Walberg.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg

On October 23, 2008, Walberg for Congress filed the Pre-General report with the Federal Election Commission. It covers the period from October 1 to October 15.

	Column A This Period	Column B Election Cycle-To-Date
I. RECEIPTS
11. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) Itemized	74151.00
(ii) Unitemized	15470.82
(iii) Total Of Contributions From Individuals	89621.82	917623.61
(b) Political Party Commitees	5125.00	18527.80
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACS)	63020.00	719394.76
(d) The Candidate	0.00	500.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a)(iii) + (b) + (c))	157766.82	1656046.17
12. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees	0.00	22157.62
13. Loans
(a) Made Or Guaranteed By The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loans ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
14. Offsets to Operating Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc)	0.00	13023.89
15. Other Receipts	0.00	7802.85
16. Total Receipts (11(e) + 12 + 13(c) + 14 + 15)	157766.82	1699030.53
II. DISBURSEMENTS
17. Operating Expenditures	437012.16	1378633.69
18. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees	0.00	0.00
19. Loan Repayments:
(a) Of Loans Made or Guaranteed by the Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) Of All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loan Repayments ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
20. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees	0.00	2350.00
(b) Political Party Committees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACs)	0.00	294.12
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c))	0.00	2644.12
21. Other Disbursements	0.00	499.00
22. Total Disbursements (17 + 18 + 19(c) + 20(d) + 21)	437012.16	1381776.81
III. CASH SUMMARY
23. Cash On Hand At Beginning Of Reporting Period	691635.12
24. Total Receipts This Period (line 16)	157766.82	1699030.53
25. Subtotal (23 + 24)	849401.94
26. Total Disbursements This Period (line 22)	437012.16	1381776.81
27. Cash On Hand At Close Of The Reporting Period (25 - 26)	412389.78

In the fifteen-day period, Walberg raised $157,766.82. Of that, $89,621.82 came from individual donors, or about 57 percent. Included in that is $5,000 from the Republican National Committee. This brought his total fundraising for the cycle up to that point to $1,699,030.53.

In the same period, Walberg spent $437,012.16. This included a $42,000 mailing and about $260,000 spent on "ads."

At the close of the period, Walberg had $412,389.78 cash-on-hand. This is just 56 percent of Schauer's cash-on-hand. Schauer entered the final portion of the campaign with nearly twice as much money as Walberg.

The Jackson Citizen Patriot's Chris Gautz looked at some notable contributors to the Walberg campaign during this period. It's interesting reading.

Although significantly more than former Congressman Nick Smith's mere $125,506 raised in his 2002 reelection campaign and nearly twice former Congressman Joe Schwarz's $891,845 in 2004, Walberg only slightly outraised Schwarz's $1,608,883 for the 2006 Republican primary. Walberg's fundraising appears consistent with a Republican in a tough race, unlike the extraordinary records set by Schauer.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Tim Walberg

On October 23, 2008, Schauer for Congress filed the Pre-General report with the Federal Election Commission. It covers the period from October 1 to October 15.

	Column A This Period	Column B Election Cycle-To-Date
I. RECEIPTS
11. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) Itemized	136838.50
(ii) Unitemized	28022.87
(iii) Total Of Contributions From Individuals	164861.37	1329405.89
(b) Political Party Commitees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACS)	58592.36	631647.23
(d) The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a)(iii) + (b) + (c))	223453.73	1961053.12
12. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees	2923.87	43760.85
13. Loans
(a) Made Or Guaranteed By The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loans ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
14. Offsets to Operating Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc)	0.00	0.00
15. Other Receipts	0.00	11772.88
16. Total Receipts (11(e) + 12 + 13(c) + 14 + 15)	226377.60	2016586.85
II. DISBURSEMENTS
17. Operating Expenditures	247338.14	1155383.32
18. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees	100000.00	120000.00
19. Loan Repayments:
(a) Of Loans Made or Guaranteed by the Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) Of All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loan Repayments ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
20. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees	300.00	5100.00
(b) Political Party Committees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACs)	0.00	1400.00
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c))	300.00	6500.00
21. Other Disbursements	0.00	700.00
22. Total Disbursements (17 + 18 + 19(c) + 20(d) + 21)	347638.14	1282583.32
III. CASH SUMMARY
23. Cash On Hand At Beginning Of Reporting Period	856148.96
24. Total Receipts This Period (line 16)	226377.60	2016586.85
25. Subtotal (23 + 24)	1082526.56
26. Total Disbursements This Period (line 22)	347638.14	1282583.32
27. Cash On Hand At Close Of The Reporting Period (25 - 26)	734888.42

In the fifteen-day period covered by the report, Mark Schauer raised $223,453.73, plus almost $3,000 transferred from the joint committee with 9th District Democrat Gary Peters. Of the contributions he received, $164,861.37 came from individual donors, or about 74 percent. The Schauer campaign raised a total of $2,016,586.85 for the entire cycle up to that date.

The Schauer for Congress committee also spent $347,638.14 in that period, including a $101,409.82 media buy and a $100,000.00 transfer to the Michigan Democratic Party.

As a result of these expenditures, the Schauer campaign's cash-on-hand as of October 15 was $734,888.42.

Chris Gautz at the Jackson Citizen Patriot picked out some significant contributors during this filing period. It's interesting reading.

The total dollar amount raised for every Democratic nominee in the 7th District since the 2002 cycle (when the current boundaries were adopted) and prior to 2008 is $115,718. That is, the total amount of money raised for the 2002, 2004, and 2006 nominees was $115,718. In 15 days, Mark Schauer raised almost twice that, and for the whole cycle, has raised raised that more than 17 times over.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer

On October 15, 2008, Tim Walberg's campaign filed their third quarter fundraising report with the Federal Elections Commission. It covers the period from July 1, 2008 to September 30, 2008.

	Column A This Period	Column B Election Cycle-To-Date
I. RECEIPTS
11. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) Itemized	141965.00
(ii) Unitemized	41707.93
(iii) Total Of Contributions From Individuals	183672.93	828001.79
(b) Political Party Commitees	4500.00	13402.80
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACS)	121368.70	656374.76
(d) The Candidate	0.00	500.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a)(iii) + (b) + (c))	309541.63	1498279.35
12. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees	21410.12	22157.62
13. Loans
(a) Made Or Guaranteed By The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loans ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
14. Offsets to Operating Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc)	151.00	13023.89
15. Other Receipts	1815.88	7802.85
16. Total Receipts (11(e) + 12 + 13(c) + 14 + 15)	332918.63	1541263.71
II. DISBURSEMENTS
17. Operating Expenditures	495921.85	941621.53
18. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees	0.00	0.00
19. Loan Repayments:
(a) Of Loans Made or Guaranteed by the Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) Of All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loan Repayments ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
20. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees	0.00	2350.00
(b) Political Party Committees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACs)	0.00	294.12
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c))	0.00	2644.12
21. Other Disbursements	499.00	499.00
22. Total Disbursements (17 + 18 + 19(c) + 20(d) + 21)	496420.85	944764.65
III. CASH SUMMARY
23. Cash On Hand At Beginning Of Reporting Period	855137.34
24. Total Receipts This Period (line 16)	332918.63	1541263.71
25. Subtotal (23 + 24)	1188055.97
26. Total Disbursements This Period (line 22)	496420.85	944764.65
27. Cash On Hand At Close Of The Reporting Period (25 - 26)	691635.12

In this quarter, Walberg raised $332,918.63, with $183,672.93, or about 55 percent, coming from individual donors. The rest came from political action committees or some organ of the Republican Party.

In the same quarter, Walberg spent $496,420.85, slightly more than half of all expenditures in the cycle up to that point. Many of the more expensive purchases are for "advertising" or "production," reflecting the start of serious general election campaigning.

At the end of the quarter, Walberg had $691,635.12 cash-on-hand.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Tim Walberg

On October 15, 2008, the Schauer for Congress campaign filed their third quarter fundraising report with the Federal Elections Commission. It covers the period from July 1, 2008 to September 30, 2008.

	Column A This Period	Column B Election Cycle-To-Date
I. RECEIPTS
11. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) Itemized	257644.77
(ii) Unitemized	47889.62
(iii) Total Of Contributions From Individuals	305534.39	1164544.52
(b) Political Party Commitees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACS)	123419.87	573054.87
(d) The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a)(iii) + (b) + (c))	428954.26	1737599.39
12. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees	25918.08	40836.98
13. Loans
(a) Made Or Guaranteed By The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loans ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
14. Offsets to Operating Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc)	0.00	0.00
15. Other Receipts	3779.69	11772.88
16. Total Receipts (11(e) + 12 + 13(c) + 14 + 15)	458652.03	1790209.25
II. DISBURSEMENTS
17. Operating Expenditures	530289.52	908045.18
18. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees	0.00	20000.00
19. Loan Repayments:
(a) Of Loans Made or Guaranteed by the Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) Of All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loan Repayments ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
20. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees	500.00	4800.00
(b) Political Party Committees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACs)	400.00	1400.00
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c))	900.00	6200.00
21. Other Disbursements	0.00	700.00
22. Total Disbursements (17 + 18 + 19(c) + 20(d) + 21)	531189.52	934945.18
III. CASH SUMMARY
23. Cash On Hand At Beginning Of Reporting Period	928686.45
24. Total Receipts This Period (line 16)	458652.03	1790209.25
25. Subtotal (23 + 24)	1387338.48
26. Total Disbursements This Period (line 22)	531189.52	934945.18
27. Cash On Hand At Close Of The Reporting Period (25 - 26)	856148.96

In this quarter, Schauer raised $458,652.03, with $305,534.39 coming from individual donors, or about 67 percent. The rest came from political action committees or other, similar groups. For the entire election cycle up to the end of September, Schauer raised $1,790,209.25.

In the same quarter, Schauer spent $531,189.52. This accounts for more than half of all their spending in this election cycle, including large "media production" costs-- presumably, television ads-- reflecting the start of the general election period.

The campaign finished the quarter with $856,148.96 cash-on-hand.

This quarter is the fifth straight quarter in which Mark Schauer has out-raised Tim Walberg.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer

Catching Up... -- Fitzy

On September 14, state Senator Mark Schauer released his second television advertisement:



There are some striking similarities and even more striking differences between this ad and Congressman Walberg's second television ad. Like Walberg's ad, the important part is the personal testimonial-- one person in front of the camera, sharing his thoughts on the candidate. These tend to be effective. It's good politics to show other faces than your own.

But Walberg's second ad was an attack ad and very negative (with scary music and everything). It ended on a frightening note: "Our survival is in jeopardy if we let [Schauer raise taxes]." Schauer's ends with soft music, a message of hope, and a sense of accomplishment: "Our jobs are staying here, and we have Mark Schauer to thank for it."

I don't know which message will be more effective. Anyone who's been watching politics for the last eight years knows that fear works and motivates voters, but the last year has shown that hope works, too. I just think it's interesting.

Now that both candidates are on the air, I'd love to see some polling that asks about the effectiveness of the ads. But, sadly, pollsters don't come to me for ideas, nor do I have the money to commission polls myself.

Also interesting, though less important in terms of moving voters, was the fundraising e-mail sent out by the Schauer campaign after releasing the ad. One part of the e-mail reads:

We can't let Tim Walberg get away with another vicious smear campaign against me, like he did two years ago against Joe Schwarz.

Obviously, this shows that Democrats know how to use fear, too, just in a different sort of way. But I think it's also telling that Schauer is starting to invoke Joe Schwarz in these e-mails. Schwarz is every Michigan Democrat's favorite Republican, and for many good reasons, and memories of the 2006 primary are a good motivator for Schauer's donor base. But Schwarz is still a powerful influence among independents and Republicans in the district, too. I'll be interested to see how much his name is used as we move closer to November.

Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Fundraising, Joe Schwarz, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg

This morning, Schauer for Congress sent out a fundraising e-mail that included a link to their first television ad. The timing of the ad, Schauer admits, is in part because of the attack ad released by Tim Walberg's campaign:

Walberg's latest commercial features a Jackson business owner who complains about taxes, saying "This plant, these jobs, our survival's in jeopardy."

But what he doesn't mention is the fact that I helped create a law that exempts his tool and die company from virtually all state and local taxes. While Tim Walberg and George Bush have supported unfair trade deals that make it harder for Michigan businesses to compete, I fought to level the playing field and make us more competitive.

That's the difference in this race - I've actually worked with businesses in the district to save and create jobs. As for Tim Walberg, it's clear that the only job he cares about saving is his own.

DONATE NOW

For almost a full month now, Walberg has been spending money on TV ads in a desperate attempt to raise his weak poll numbers, which show that he's just a few points away from losing his seat. I'll admit, this is earlier than we wanted to go on their air, but I won't let Tim Walberg get away with another vicious smear campaign like he did against Joe Schwarz two years ago.

Here's the new ad:



What do you think? Will this help get Schauer's name out in places like Lenawee, Hillsdale, and Branch Counties? Is it an effective ad? Is it an effective response to the Walberg ad?

Labels: 2008 Election, Advertising, Economy, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg

A lot of people don't know much about a man named Homer Stryker, but they should. Raised in Athens, Michigan, he was a teacher, a World War I soldier, a doctor, and an inventor. As an orthopedic surgeon in Kalamazoo, he began building devices that improved the comfort of the patients he was treating. The company he founded-- Stryker Corp.-- has grown into a Fortune 500 company and a leader in medical technologies.

But best of all, they're still in Kalamazoo, Michigan. With nearly 19,000 employees worldwide, the world headquarters and much of the manufacturing is still in Michigan.

This is the perfect Michigan success story. It shows that Michigan businesses can thrive and be successful and stay in Michigan. It shows that hard work and creativity can lead to great results. This is the sort of success story politicians should be talking about all the time.

So what does Tim Walberg say about it while touring a hospital?

Matt Davis, a Marshall Realtor and Walberg supporter, noted the room contained a bed made by Stryker Corp. of Kalamazoo.

Walberg said he'd had surgery in 2007 at the Bethesda Naval Hospital in Maryland.

"I looked at the bed and it said 'Stryker,'" Walberg said. "Bummer."

(Emphasis added.)

"Bummer." That's his reaction to a Michigan success story. Why?

Jon Stryker, one of three billionaire grandchildren of Stryker's founder, has in recent years funded numerous liberal causes, and his Coalition for Progress has contributed to Schauer's 2008 campaign.

Yup. Tim Walberg doesn't like Stryker because one of the grandchildren of the founder is a Democrat. And it's true-- Jon Stryker has spent a lot of money on his political activities. It's much like the many members of the Club for Growth, who funded the congressman's 2006 campaign.

To his credit, Walberg eventually acknowledged that he was wrong:

In the end, Walberg noted that the company is a separate entity and said, "If Stryker makes the best hospital bed, that's the one I want to be in."

But an initial reaction says a lot. In the comments on the Battle Creek Enquirer article, user DSMi59 wrote:

His comment about Stryker and it's politics is a good guage of how he values Michigan businesses. It isn't the business he appreciates, one who chooses staying in Michigan and making local employment possible, it's that Stryker supports the wrong political party. He resents being in a hospital bed manufactured in his own state. Bummer, indeed!

And Michigan Liberal's Eric B. wrote:

He could have said that he was proud to have been in a bed made by the nation's best workers, right here in Michigan, in one of the nation's best hospitals. He could have said that. Didn't.

Congressman Walberg, perceptions mean a lot, and as a public figure, you're in a position that attracts a lot of attention. "Bummer" doesn't convince businesses to stay in Michigan. It's possible that we're all being a little too sensitive, but seriously, "bummer"? That's the most intelligent thing you can think of?

For the record, I've got no problem buying cabinetry from Merillat, despite the numerous times that the Merillat name shows up in Walberg's FEC filing. For that matter, Battle Creek Unlimited still does plenty of great things for that city, so don't judge them harshly just because their CEO contributed $500 to Tim Walberg's re-election campaign.

Business is business, and politics is politics. In a state like Michigan, I don't care who you vote for, as long as you're providing jobs and helping your community. It's too bad Tim Walberg doesn't feel the same way.

Labels: 2008 Election, Economy, Fundraising, Issues, Jon Stryker, Mark Schauer, Tim Walberg

In addition to filing her second quarter report, Sharon Renier also filed a pre-primary report. The following represents the period from June 30 to July 16, 2008:

	Column A This Period	Column B Election Cycle-To-Date
I. RECEIPTS
11. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) Itemized	1990.00
(ii) Unitemized	465.00
(iii) Total Of Contributions From Individuals	2455.00	10082.00
(b) Political Party Commitees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACS)	0.00	0.00
(d) The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a)(iii) + (b) + (c))	2455.00	10082.00
12. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees	0.00	0.00
13. Loans
(a) Made Or Guaranteed By The Candidate	2800.00	2800.00
(b) All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loans ((a) + (b))	2800.00	2800.00
14. Offsets to Operating Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc)	0.00	0.00
15. Other Receipts	0.00	0.00
16. Total Receipts (11(e) + 12 + 13(c) + 14 + 15)	5255.00	12882.00
II. DISBURSEMENTS
17. Operating Expenditures	4578.27	22259.45
18. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees	0.00	0.00
19. Loan Repayments:
(a) Of Loans Made or Guaranteed by the Candidate	0.00	200.00
(b) Of All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loan Repayments ((a) + (b))	0.00	200.00
20. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees	0.00	0.00
(b) Political Party Committees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACs)	0.00	0.00
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c))	0.00	0.00
21. Other Disbursements	0.00	0.00
22. Total Disbursements (17 + 18 + 19(c) + 20(d) + 21)	4578.27	22459.45
III. CASH SUMMARY
23. Cash On Hand At Beginning Of Reporting Period	-673.27
24. Total Receipts This Period (line 16)	5255.00	12882.00
25. Subtotal (23 + 24)	4581.73
26. Total Disbursements This Period (line 22)	4578.27	22459.45
27. Cash On Hand At Close Of The Reporting Period (25 - 26)	3.46

As of July 16, 2008, Sharon Renier had $3.46 cash-on-hand.

Itemized receipts can be found here. She raised $1,740.00 through entry fees for "Votestock '08," and she contributed $2,800 to herself. She also received one $250 contribution from a supporter, and $465 worth of unitemized (under $200) contributions.

Her disbursements can be found here. Most of Renier's spending was on "Votestock"-related fun, but she also had eight $5.00 overdraft fees from the bank handling her campaign funds. In other words, on eight occasions, she was spending money she didn't have.

There's a part of me that admires Renier's commitment to getting money out of politics. At the same time, this sort of thing makes one doubt the sincerity of her campaign. Is she really interested in winning? 'Cause she can't do anything to change the country if she's not elected, and she won't be elected if she can't get her message out. That requires money.

The primary is tomorrow.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Sharon Renier

I fell a little bit behind on this... I figured I should get it up before the primary (tomorrow).

Rather than file a second quarter report with the FEC only to file again a week and a half later, both Congressman Walberg and state Senator Schauer chose to combine their reports. The following covers Mark Schauer's fundraising in the period from April 01, 2008 to July 16, 2008:

	Column A This Period	Column B Election Cycle-To-Date
I. RECEIPTS
11. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) Itemized	227138.54
(ii) Unitemized	35705.94
(iii) Total Of Contributions From Individuals	262844.48	859010.13
(b) Political Party Commitees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACS)	161760.00	449635.00
(d) The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a)(iii) + (b) + (c))	424604.48	1308645.13
12. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees	0.00	14918.90
13. Loans
(a) Made Or Guaranteed By The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loans ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
14. Offsets to Operating Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc)	0.00	0.00
15. Other Receipts	3109.68	7993.19
16. Total Receipts (11(e) + 12 + 13(c) + 14 + 15)	427714.16	1331557.22
II. DISBURSEMENTS
17. Operating Expenditures	235286.71	377755.66
18. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees	10000.00	20000.00
19. Loan Repayments:
(a) Of Loans Made or Guaranteed by the Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) Of All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loan Repayments ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
20. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees	4100.00	4300.00
(b) Political Party Committees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACs)	1000.00	1000.00
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c))	5100.00	5300.00
21. Other Disbursements	0.00	700.00
22. Total Disbursements (17 + 18 + 19(c) + 20(d) + 21)	250386.71	403755.66
III. CASH SUMMARY
23. Cash On Hand At Beginning Of Reporting Period	751359.00
24. Total Receipts This Period (line 16)	427714.16	1331557.22
25. Subtotal (23 + 24)	1179073.16
26. Total Disbursements This Period (line 22)	250386.71	403755.66
27. Cash On Hand At Close Of The Reporting Period (25 - 26)	928686.45

Senator Schauer raised $424,604.48 in the three-and-a-half months covered here. Of that, $262,844.48 came from individuals and $161,760.00 came from PACs.

Schauer has raised a total of $1,331,557.22 for this election cycle. After spending $403,755.66, he has $928,686.45 cash-on-hand.

In addition to all of that, he raised another $20,000 in large contributions since the deadline.

Itemized donors ($200+) can be found here. Disbursements can be found here.

There's no other way to say it, Mark Schauer has a lot of money to play with. And against a primary opponent with $3.00 in the bank (that's the next post), it seems fairly likely that we'll see a Schauer-Walberg race in November.

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer

I'm leaving in a little while for Chicago and far more important things than politics, so posting is going to be light for a few days. To tide you over, here are a few significant items.

Fundraising

Senator Mark Schauer's pre-primary fundraising report can be found here. The numbers?

Raised (2Q+16 days): $427,714.16
Raised (Cycle-To-Date): $1,331,557.22
Contributions From Individuals: $262,844.48
Cash-On-Hand: $928,686.45

I will do a more complete post next week.

Housing

From the comments, we get a link to this story:

A sweeping housing bill passed the House yesterday that will aide people across the country trying to keep their homes, it also includes a $7,500 tax credit for first-time home buyers and allow the Treasury department to extend a line of credit to mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg voted against the bill.

Of course he did. I'll write more about that next week, too.

Iraq

From the Lansing State Journal, we get this passage from an article on Mark Schauer and Sharon Renier:

Both candidates said they oppose the Iraq war. Schauer said he would use the congressional power of the purse to change what he called a failed strategy from the Bush administration.

Renier, meanwhile, said she would demand that generals adopt her plan for Iraq and would vote to withhold funds if they don't. Pressed to reveal more details of that plan, Renier declined, saying, "If it's going to be on the front page, you might as well tell the enemy."

So... Sharon Renier has a secret plan to end the war. It's possible she was misquoted or misrepresented, but that sounds a little Nixonian to me.

Party Unity

Also from that Lansing State Journal article:

And while Schauer said he'd support Renier if he loses, Renier emphatically declined to return the favor.

"Hell no," she said when asked if she'd support Schauer against Walberg. "They're both about the same. They've not done anything for the state."

"I voted for Sharon Renier against Tim Walberg in 2006, so I have nothing against her personally," Schauer replied. "I don't think Sharon Renier knows me very well and I think she has a fundamental misunderstanding about me. I would hope she would have an open mind."

This I find troubling. Of all people, Sharon Renier should understand why almost anyone would be better than Tim Walberg.

Walberg Watch Video of the Week

For your enjoyment:



As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

Labels: Affordable Housing, Democratic Party, Environment, Fundraising, Global Warming, Iraq, Mark Schauer, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg, Video

Senator Schauer's pre-primary FEC report isn't on the internet yet, though I'm sure it will be by tomorrow. However, the campaign did send out this press release:

SCHAUER BREAKS OWN RECORD FOR FUNDRAISING IN 7TH DISTRICT
Congressional candidate eclipses Walberg's total haul for 2006 cycle

BATTLE CREEK—Today State Senator Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) announced that his Congressional campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record he set earlier this year for the most money raised by a Democrat in the 7th district. Combined with the last quarter when he outraised his incumbent opponent, Schauer has now brought in more than $1.33 million and has more than $928,000 cash on hand.

"The people of south central Michigan are hungry for change and ready for a leader who will fight to turn our economy around, one job at a time," said Schauer. "I'm a strong believer in the power of grassroots organizing, and this overwhelming support will help us continue building momentum as we reach out to new voters in all seven counties of the seventh district."

In this quarter alone, the campaign collected more than 1,100 total contributions, with more than 83 percent of individual contributions from donors in Michigan. With just over 100 days to go before the general election, Schauer has now raised more than Tim Walberg brought in during the entire 2006 election cycle.

"Congressman Walberg has done nothing to improve Michigan's job climate since taking office, but we fully expect him to do whatever it takes to keep his seat in Washington," said Campaign Manager B.J. Neidhardt. "That's why it's so important for us to keep working hard to defend against the impending negative attacks from Walberg's wealthy donors."

# # #

It'll be interesting to see all the details. This really is an incredible amount of money for a challenger to be raising.

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Mark Schauer

Rather than file a second quarter report with the FEC only to file again a week and a half later, both Congressman Walberg and state Senator Schauer chose to combine their reports. The following covers Tim Walberg's fundraising in the period from April 01, 2008 to July 16, 2008:

	Column A This Period	Column B Election Cycle-To-Date
I. RECEIPTS
11. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) Itemized	130352.26
(ii) Unitemized	27014.49
(iii) Total Of Contributions From Individuals	157366.75	644328.86
(b) Political Party Commitees	8902.80	8902.80
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACS)	197172.20	535006.06
(d) The Candidate	0.00	500.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a)(iii) + (b) + (c))	363441.75	1188737.72
12. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees	0.00	747.50
13. Loans
(a) Made Or Guaranteed By The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loans ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
14. Offsets to Operating Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc)	0.00	12872.89
15. Other Receipts	1482.75	5986.97
16. Total Receipts (11(e) + 12 + 13(c) + 14 + 15)	364924.50	1208345.08
II. DISBURSEMENTS
17. Operating Expenditures	114253.70	445699.68
18. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees	0.00	0.00
19. Loan Repayments:
(a) Of Loans Made or Guaranteed by the Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) Of All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loan Repayments ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
20. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees	0.00	2350.00
(b) Political Party Committees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACs)	0.00	294.12
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c))	0.00	2644.12
21. Other Disbursements	0.00	0.00
22. Total Disbursements (17 + 18 + 19(c) + 20(d) + 21)	114253.70	448343.80
III. CASH SUMMARY
23. Cash On Hand At Beginning Of Reporting Period	604466.54
24. Total Receipts This Period (line 16)	364924.50	1208345.08
25. Subtotal (23 + 24)	969391.04
26. Total Disbursements This Period (line 22)	114253.70	448343.80
27. Cash On Hand At Close Of The Reporting Period (25 - 26)	855137.34

Congressman Walberg raised $364,924.50 in the three-and-a-half months covered here. Of that, $157,366.75 came from individual donors, with the bulk of it-- $130,352.26-- coming in contributions of $200 or more. It's worth noting that over half of Walberg's receipts-- $197,172.20-- came from Political Action Committees, plus another $8,902.80 from other candidates.

For the entire election cycle, Walberg has raised a total of $1,188,737.72. After spending $114,253.70 in this period, Walberg has $855,137.34 cash-on-hand.

This period also included both NRCC chair Tom Cole's visit and the Livonia fundraiser with President George W. Bush.

Congressman Walberg's itemized receipts (over $200) can be found here. Here are some committee contributions that I found interesting:

• The Brad Smith for Congress Committee, left over from 2004, contributed $100. This was one of three contributions by that committee (the others were to a Michigan Supreme Court candidate and to the Hillsdale County Republican Party).
• Citizens United Political Victory Fund contributed $1,000. This is a right-wing group that actively and openly engages in push polls and attacks people like me as "ultra-liberal."
• CoalPAC contributed $1,500.
• Eagle Forum PAC, who stopped the ERA and are the creative minds behind "Conservapedia" and other projects, contributed $2,000.
• "Friends of John Boehner," House Minority Leader, contributed $2,000.
• Club for Growth PAC contributed $8,300.
• Midnight Sun PAC, the leadership PAC of corrupt Congressman Don Young, contributed $1,000.
• The NRCC contributed $3,500.

This is by no means a complete list, and since the deadline, Walberg has received another $4,000 from other committees.

Congressman Walberg's disbursements can be found here. For the most part, they all seem pretty straight-forward.

Overall, this was a fair quarter for Walberg. He took in $365,000, though most of that didn't come from individual donors. Unfortunately, he was out-raised once again by his leading Democratic opponent. That always bodes badly for an incumbent congressman.

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Tim Walberg

As a follow-up to my post last week about Libertarian Candidate Ken Proctor, I thought I needed to finish up the minor party field in advance of the Green Party convention this weekend in Marshall. In both 2004 and 2006, the U.S. Taxpayers Party, Michigan's branch of the Constitution Party, fielded candidate David Horn.

David Horn, for those that remember, was an interesting candidate. After Joe Schwarz won the 2004 primary over Brad Smith and Tim Walberg, I heard rumors that Walberg was telling people to support Horn-- the U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee-- instead of Schwarz, the Republican nominee. I never saw any proof of that, but if it were true, it might explain Horn's better-than-anticipated performance in 2004:

Republican Schwarz 176,053 59%

Democratic Renier 109,527 36%

Taxpayers Horn 9,032 3%

Green Seagraves 3,996 1%

Libertarian Proctor 3,034 1%

Now, three percent isn't much, but it's more than the other two minor party totals combined and came after a pretty much non-existent campaign. As an example, for the 2004 cycle, he raised a total of $9,838, which was less than Green Party candidate Jason Seagraves' $10,275. In getting three percent of the vote, Horn was the most successful third-party congressional candidate in Michigan that year.

In 2006, Horn was once again the nominee. However, he took an unusual strategy: he told people to vote for Tim Walberg. From my coverage two years ago:

More news this week from the Battle Creek Enquirer:

U.S. Taxpayer candidate David Horn is not making a serious run for office.

He does not intend on investing in his election efforts before the Nov. 7 election or doing much campaigning.

It's not often that you have a candidate that comes out publicly to say that he doesn't want the job he's running for, so of course this caught my attention.

[...]

"Basically, for anyone to want to vote for me, they'd have to be too Libertarian to vote for Walberg, and too conservative to vote for the Libertarian (Robert Hutchinson)," Horn said. "That's a pretty, pretty narrow focus there."

While Horn doesn't want Democrat Sharon Renier in office, he thinks it would be good if Walberg were elected.

"I'd probably be a Republican if more Republicans thought as he did," Horn said.

Horn said he agrees with Walberg's stances on "probably 90 percent of the issues."

(Emphasis added)

In that post, I then proceeded to describe some of David Horn's positions and those of the Constitution Party and the U.S. Taxpayers Party. Here's an example:

I support abolition of the income tax and repeal of the 16^th Amendment. I wish to restore taxation to that prescribed by our Founders: tariffs and excise taxes.

It's not quite Walberg's FairTax, but it's pretty close.

Given this near-endorsement of Tim Walberg, how did David Horn fair in the 2006 election?

Republican Walberg 122,640 51%

Democratic Renier 112,623 46%

Libertarian Hutchinson 3,787 2%

Taxpayers Horn 3,664 1%

Ah! He was back to where most minor parties belong.

Now that 2008 is here, has David Horn decided that the 10 percent of differences between him and Tim Walberg are too much? Will he or some other brave and conservative voice stand up and be heard? Will someone stand up to fight for the far-far-far-far-right of our district?

Well, no. The party did not nominate a candidate for Michigan's 7th Congressional District this year. Apparently, they decided Tim Walberg was already doing a great job representing the folks who are so conservative that they find the mainstream Republican Party to be too liberal.

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

NOTE: Edited, because on the first pass, I forgot this disclaimer.

Labels: 2004 Election, 2006 Election, 2008 Election, David Horn, Fundraising, Republican Party, Tim Walberg, US Taxpayers Party

Yesterday was the deadline for filing second quarter fundraising reports with the Federal Elections Commission. As I understand it, both Congressman Walberg and Senator Schauer have waivers to combine their second quarter FEC reports with their pre-primary reports, which will be due on July 24. It saves them paperwork, and I completely understand the value of that.

Sharon Renier, however, filed her second quarter report at its regular time. The following covers the period from April 01, 2008 to June 30, 2008:

	Column A This Period	Column B Election Cycle-To-Date
I. RECEIPTS
11. Contributions (other than loans) From:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other than Political Committees
(i) Itemized	4800.00
(ii) Unitemized	997.00
(iii) Total Of Contributions From Individuals	5797.00	7627.00
(b) Political Party Commitees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACS)	0.00	0.00
(d) The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(e) Total Contributions (11(a)(iii) + (b) + (c))	5797.00	7627.00
12. Transfers From Other Authorized Committees	0.00	0.00
13. Loans
(a) Made Or Guaranteed By The Candidate	0.00	0.00
(b) All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loans ((a) + (b))	0.00	0.00
14. Offsets to Operating Expenditures (Refunds, Rebates, etc)	0.00	0.00
15. Other Receipts	0.00	0.00
16. Total Receipts (11(e) + 12 + 13(c) + 14 + 15)	5797.00	7627.00
II. DISBURSEMENTS
17. Operating Expenditures	6315.31	17681.18
18. Transfers to Other Authorized Committees	0.00	0.00
19. Loan Repayments:
(a) Of Loans Made or Guaranteed by the Candidate	200.00	200.00
(b) Of All Other Loans	0.00	0.00
(c) Total Loan Repayments ((a) + (b))	200.00	200.00
20. Refunds of Contributions To:
(a) Individuals/Persons Other Than Political Committees	0.00	0.00
(b) Political Party Committees	0.00	0.00
(c) Other Political Committees (such as PACs)	0.00	0.00
(d) Total Contribution Refunds (28(a) + (b) + (c))	0.00	0.00
21. Other Disbursements	0.00	0.00
22. Total Disbursements (17 + 18 + 19(c) + 20(d) + 21)	6515.31	17881.18
III. CASH SUMMARY
23. Cash On Hand At Beginning Of Reporting Period	45.04
24. Total Receipts This Period (line 16)	5797.00	7627.00
25. Subtotal (23 + 24)	5842.04
26. Total Disbursements This Period (line 22)	6515.31	17881.18
27. Cash On Hand At Close Of The Reporting Period (25 - 26)	-673.27

Sharon Renier raised $5,797 last quarter, with $4,800 itemized (larger than $200). For the entire election cycle, she has now raised $7,627. In the last quarter, she spent $6,315.31 (and she also paid back $200 of a loan from herself), and she currently has a cash-on-hand balance of -$673.27. She also still owes another $5,000 on the loan she made to herself in 2006.

I'll say that it's never good when your cash-on-hand is negative, especially if she's planning any sort of primary-day push next month.

Renier's $4,800 in itemized contributions came from four individuals. I'm not going to state their names here, but I did notice one troubling item. There is an individual who contributed $1,000 (and $1,150 to date). When I checked his name on OpenSecrets.org, it seems that he hasn't made many contributions, but his company (of which he is president) last made a contribution in 2001 to the National Republican Congressional Committee. Now, that's just one person, but I'd rather not have Republicans trying to play games in our primary. (Of course, I could also be wrong, and he could have had a change of heart. In that case, welcome to the party!)

Renier's disbursements are available here. Each seem fairly reasonable-- web hosting, bank fees, and advertising.

We'll see if Schauer and Walberg can beat Renier's $5,800.

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

NOTE: Edited, because on the first pass, I forgot this disclaimer.

Labels: 2008 Election, Fundraising, Sharon Renier

Last week, I briefly examined the media markets which cover the 7th District and commented on their cost, wondering what role it would play in the race. You may recall this handy map:


Inspired by the same FiveThirtyEight.com post, Swing State Project blogger Crisitunity created what he calls the "Bang-for-the-Buck Index" of House races. As he explains:

Time for the thrilling conclusion to the Bang-for-the-Buck Index, begun yesterday with the Senate installment. Follow the link for full methodological nitty-gritty, but the main thing that you need to know is that this index shows which races are the cheapest media-wise (and thus where one netroots dollar gets stretched the furthest). This list covers all House races that Swing State Project projects as Dem pickup opportunities.

The middle column lists every media market that needs to be utilized in order to blanket the district, and the number next to each market is the number of thousands of TV households in that market. The more TV households, the more expensive the market. (When a market only grazes a small part of the district where there's no major population center, I've deemed the market negligible, assuming that a smart media buyer wouldn't use that market.) The number in the right column is the sum total of the thousands of TV households in all markets in the district, which provides a relative number that indicates how expensive a media campaign in that district is.

As you'll see, there's a huge amount of variation, depending on the number of 'wasted eyeballs.' The wasted eyeballs problem becomes huge in suburban districts in major metropolitan districts, where you may be paying to advertise to people in the adjacent 10 or 20 districts as well.

In his index of competitive House races, his entry for Michigan's 7th District is:

MI-07

Detroit (1,936) Toledo (427) Lansing (257) Grand Rapids (732)

3,352

In other words, in our district, advertising in all four markets which cover us is the equivalent of advertising to 3.3 million television households. For comparison, the Philadelphia market is only 2.9 million television households, while Chicago's market barely edges us out, with 3.4 million television households. As he stated in his post, the more households, the more expensive it is.

This makes the 7th District the 15th most expensive district in Crisitunity's list (with about 80 districts on the list as possible Democratic pick-ups), mainly following districts covered by the New York (7.4 million), Los Angeles (5.5 million), and Chicago (3.4 million) markets.

As Crisitunity continues:

You may have also noticed a number of predominantly rural districts that should theoretically be cheap but in fact are very expensive; MI-07 and NC-08 are key examples, each of which are kind of located between major cities and wind up biting a corner out of a bunch of different markets. Poor PA-05 is the perhaps the worst example; it doesn't even have any TV stations in its boundaries, but it takes bites out of about 8 surrounding markets. Districts like these, again, are probably dealt with creatively, with buys in some TV markets and more focus on cable and other media.

As with the previous post on this subject, I don't have a profound conclusion on this, but it's something I find interesting.

As of July 09, 2008, I have been working with the Schauer for Congress campaign in Lenawee County. My thoughts and writings are my own opinions, and I do not speak for Senator Schauer or anyone else in his organization.

Labels: 2008 Speculation, Advertising, Fundraising, Media Markets

One of the most interesting political resources to emerge this year has been FiveThirtyEight.com, an election projection blog focusing on the presidential campaign. The site is run by Nate Silver (formerly blogging as "Poblano"), a professional statistician who took the tools of his day job-- analyzing baseball statistics-- and applied them to the presidential race.

Over the weekend, Nate took a look at television advertising in the presidential race, and whether or not it was efficient to advertise in certain states. As an example, suppose John McCain wanted to contest New Jersey. Because of the nature of television markets in that part of the country, McCain would need to spend money on ads in the New York and Philadelphia markets in order to cover the entire state. However, New York and Philadelphia are expensive and will cover a lot of non-New Jersey voters, so McCain would be wasting money on an inefficient state.

A similar problem faces Barack Obama with trying to win Virginia, as much of northern Virginia is covered by the Washington, DC market. However, that market also covers Maryland and DC itself, so a side effect of Obama targeting Virginia is unnecessary advertising in places where he shouldn't have to spend money.

This got me thinking about Michigan's 7th Congressional District and the challenges it presents for television advertising.

Of the 210 Designated Market Areas, there are four which cover the 7th District: Detroit, Lansing, Toledo, and Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo/Battle Creek.


The map above shows each of the different media markets, with approximate boundaries of the 7th District drawn in. It's worth noting that there is some overlap. For example, in the Lansing market, Toledo's WTOL and WTVG are "significantly viewed out-of-market broadcast stations," as are WWMT and WOOD out of Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo/Battle Creek. However, there's no one market which covers everyone in the district.

So how do you advertise in that? If you want to make sure you reach everyone everywhere, you've got to advertise in all four markets. But is it really worth it to have your ads also be playing in Muskegon, Michigan and Findlay, Ohio at the same time?

Normally, this is the point where I would find some sort of conclusion, but I don't have one. It could be that, because of the difficulty and cost to effectively advertise, the incumbent has the advantage. At the same time, if Mark Schauer is going to continue to out-raise Tim Walberg, any advertising war between them could lean toward Schauer, who might feel free to advertise in the Toledo or Detroit markets. But then, that's just speculation on my part.

Anyway, I thought I would share something I found interesting. I'll be eager to see how the candidates spend money on advertising closer to November.

Labels: Advertising, Fundraising, Mark Schauer, Media Markets, Tim Walberg

As we get closer to Election Day, I'm hoping to spend some more time on other races that will be appearing on the ballot, and how they relate to the 7th District race. That is, I won't be arguing in favor of Barack Obama or against John McCain, but I will be writing about how the presidential race might have an impact on Tim Walberg's reelection bid. I gave a very general overview of state House races back in May for similar reasons. After all, this election isn't taking place in a vacuum.

When it comes to races that could have the biggest impact on the 7th District outcome, you have to list the presidential race at the top. Michigan is an important swing state, and both the McCain and Obama campaigns will be running massive voter turnout efforts. But today, I'd like to focus more on the role of Senator John McCain as a candidate and his relationship with Tim Walberg.

Let's start with what Senator McCain and Congressman Walberg have in common: they're Republicans. After that, it gets a little bit trickier. Recall this article from 2004 about Walberg and Joe Schwarz:

The 7th District is one of this year's most hotly contested Congressional primary races, where Congressman Nick Smith is retiring from his longtime seat. It is a secure Republican post, so whoever wins the August 3 primary will win the election. The six-way Republican race features three moderates with extensive legislative experience, a man without any sort of political experience, a man with a radically liberal record named Joe Schwarz, and a proven conservative statesman named Tim Walberg.

[...]

Schwarz, a former Michigan legislator and chairman of John McCain's victorious Michigan primary race in 2000, is a fiscal liberal and a social liberal. He has the touted endorsement of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a wealthy coalition of so-called RINOs — Republicans in Name Only — who identify themselves in their mission statement as the "pragmatic center." Even the League of Conservation Voters, left-wing endorser of Clinton, Gore, and Kerry, has wildly thrown itself behind Schwarz's candidacy.

All in all, Joe Schwarz does not belong in the Republican Party. He is a Democrat at heart, and a socialist at mind. At a recent candidate debate, Schwarz demonstrated that he is thoroughly pro-abortion, warmly in favor of universal federal health care, and enthusiastic about increased federal spending for higher education.

(Emphasis added.)

Most of that article was Schwarz-bashing, but it was fairly representative of the types of attacks we saw throughout 2004 and 2006. You introduce Joe Schwarz as the chairman of the Michigan campaign of John McCain in 2000, and then you talk about how horribly liberal he is.

To Michigan conservatives and Republicans, the fact that Joe Schwarz ran McCain's Michigan campaign brings back unpleasant memories of the 2000 primary. Then-Governor John Engler promised to deliver Michigan to George W. Bush. Instead, the opposite happened, and McCain won. As the New York Times reported:

Mr. Engler said today's results said ''nothing whatsoever'' about Mr. McCain's ability to attract Democrats. Instead, he argued that Democrats, glimpsing an opportunity after Mr. McCain won in New Hampshire, worked to make mischief in the Michigan primary. Mr. Engler's aides said their evidence of Democratic efforts for Mr. McCain was anecdotal.

[...]

There was evidence in the polls of voters as they left the ballot booth that Mr. Engler's endorsement hurt Mr. Bush as much as it helped him. Of the 15 percent of voters who said that Mr. Engler's endorsement had influenced them a great deal, fully seven in ten voted for Mr. McCain. Of the 15 percent who said Mr. Engler's endorsement had influenced them ''somewhat,'' 65 percent voted for Mr. Bush and 33 percent for Mr. McCain.

[...]

Mr. Engler is extremely popular among Republicans, having served all of the 1990's as governor and most of the 1980's as president of the state senate.

(Emphasis added.)

To many Michigan conservatives, it seemed as if John McCain had conspired with Michigan Democrats to embarrass their governor and their preferred presidential candidate. CNN exit polls showed that 17 percent of voters that day were Democrats, and 82 percent supported McCain. He also beat then-Governor Bush 67 to 26 among independents (35 percent of voters) and lost to Bush 29 to 66 among actual Republicans.

So, the evidence was there that McCain only won because of Democratic and independent mischief-makers. And who could they logically conclude was the architect of that strategy? Why, Michigan campaign chairman Joe Schwarz, of course!

Regardless of the truth to that allegation, it served as a reason to dislike both Schwarz and McCain, two men who were old friends who used (at the time) a similar, moderate rhetoric. And don't forget that McCain endorsed Joe Schwarz in both 2004 and 2006, and to Walberg's supporters, Joe Schwarz was and still is the enemy.

I don't want to spend too much time on this point, but it's worth emphasizing. Tim Walberg and Joe Schwarz each represented a wing of the Republican Party-- two wings that, for whatever reason, can't stand each other. McCain is closely associated with Joe Schwarz, and many of the folks that cheer on Tim Walberg will either never support John McCain or will only do so out of hatred of Barack Obama.

----

Now, let's jump forward to 2008. Senator John McCain is the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party. Given the overall dissatisfaction with the Republican presidential field in this election's primaries, I wasn't surprised to see this in 2007:

RM: Real quick before you have to run, have you made an endorsement in the Presidential Primary? Will you make an endorsement?

CTW [Congressman Tim Walberg]: I have not. I probably will keep my powder dry until we have our nominee. The Republican side, there's much to respect with each of them. There are some who have issues that I would like to see changed but when I compare them to any on the Democrat side, people ought to believe me when I say this, it's not just because I'm a Republican, but their issues are so so different from the positions I take on almost anything I'm very encouraged that when we actually get a candidate on both sides the American people and my district, the 7th District people will make the right decision.

Walberg didn't endorse when it mattered, but

I vaguely remember seeing something about Walberg endorsing McCain, but I can't seem to find an article confirming that. If he did, it was only after McCain had secured the nomination, when he would have been expected to endorse.

But beyond that, can we find any other indication of what the political relationship between Tim Walberg and John McCain might be?

On this website and elsewhere, Tim Walberg's relationship with the Club for Growth has been well-documented. To make a long story short, Walberg received an enormous amount of money from the Club in 2006, and has voted pretty consistently in the interests of the Club. They specialize in purging the Republican Party of moderates and replacing them with, well, people like Tim Walberg.

Here's what John McCain says about the Club for Growth:


And here's what the Club for Growth says about John McCain:

Club for Growth President Pat Toomey said this week that his economically conservative group might sit out the 2008 presidential election and focus on congressional races.

The Club has had an antagonistic relationship over the years with Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the GOP candidate for president. With the general-election match-up now set, Toomey is confronted with this dilemma.

This stings, and it's not just because the Club for Growth spent millions of dollars during the 2004 election cycle, largely bashing Democrats. The Club is a major Republican group, and is expected to endorse as a matter of courtesy, even if they focus on congressional races anyway. Not endorsing is a significant story about divisions within the Republican Party.

And, of course, Walberg is a favorite of the Club.

But that's just one organization. Are there any other prominent supporters of Tim Walberg who are a little hesitant to support John McCain?

Well, yes.

In 2006, then-candidate Walberg was proud to receive the endorsement of James Dobson. What does Dobson say about John McCain?

I cannot, and will not, vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience.

... And that's when he's being nice about it!

So, Walberg's supporters aren't willing to do much for McCain. Is there any evidence that McCain will be willing to do anything for Walberg?

Nope.

John McCain has begun to raise eyebrows in Republican circles for his lack of fundraising help on behalf of his party’s House and Senate campaign committees.

The Arizona senator has yet to send a fundraising appeal for those committees nearly four months after becoming his party’s presumptive nominee, and he skipped out on a major fundraising dinner for them in recent weeks.

Obviously, this isn't a personal snub against Tim Walberg, but if John McCain isn't willing to do down-ticket fundraising, then it bodes badly for endangered Republicans like Tim Walberg. He would ordinarily be counting on the top of the ticket for support, but if the article from the Hill above is any indication, McCain will be focusing all of his attention on saving his own campaign, not someone like Tim Walberg-- especially someone whose supporters have had a history of hostility toward McCain.

In the end, Walberg and McCain will need each other, and if Walberg can cling to the McCain campaign, it might help him a lot. But Walberg's side very obviously hates McCain (or at least doesn't trust him). That doesn't bode well for a productive political relationship.

Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Speculation, Club for Growth, Fundraising, James Dobson, John McCain, Tim Walberg