Saturday, June 30, 2007

Second Quarter Fundraising Expectations

In about 5 minutes, June will be over, and the second quarter for political fundraising will be complete. Most eyes will be on the presidential race-- Will Barack Obama outraise Hillary Clinton? How much of his own money will Mitt Romney have spent?

But not me. I'll be eagerly awaiting the filings from candidates in Michigan's 7th Congressional District.

So here's how it's looking:

Tim Walberg: Walberg has to raise plenty of money. He's an incumbent, so it's hard not to, but anything short of a phenomenal second quarter will spark some press speculation and some DCCC and MDP press releases about how weak he is as a candidate. Really, he's got to beat the $148,000 he got last time around, and by a lot. After all, he still wants to scare Joe Schwarz off, right?

The Democrats

Sharon Renier: Unless I missed it somewhere, Sharon Renier hasn't filed with the FEC yet, and doesn't have a campaign apparatus in place for fundraising. So she doesn't need to do anything. But if both Nacht and Berryman post strong numbers, will she still run again? After all, she never broke $60,000 for the entire 2006 cycle.

David Nacht: A prolific commenter named Kyle Sutton has posted this in a few different places:
Without an appropriate heading, I have posted this here and under other stories. I have heard that David Nacht has raised $155,000 this past quarter, making him a very serious contender for the '08 election. This is exactly what the Dems need in a challenger who is going to face Walberg. Walberg has made this race very, very winnable for Democrats, but it will take some financial backing to do so. In raising this money, Nacht has proven himself able to garner the necessary backing. Add that to his impressive resume (working for John Glenn, graduating from U of M and Harvard, unseating a Republican township board, etc.) already featured on the site and you have a very strong candidate.
(Emphasis added.)

Absolutely, yes! If Nacht raised that much-- more than Walberg raised in the first quarter-- it'll put him in a solid place for both the primary and the general election, so long as he keeps it up.

That is, if Kyle is right. If he's wrong, than it's unrealistically raising our expectations, and anything short of that will seem like a disappointment and failure (see: Bill Richardson claiming to outraise John Edwards, and then not). I don't know what kind of connections he has (or if he'd care to elaborate), but this would be a big deal if Nacht raised $155,000.

Jim Berryman: The only way it wouldn't be a big deal for Nacht to raise $155,000 would be if Jim Berryman were to raise even more. I haven't got the foggiest idea where he might be at right now. But here's what he said prior to announcing his candidacy:
Former state Sen. Jim Berryman of Adrian said he has begun talking with supporters to see if he can raise the $2 million to $3 million necessary to challenge the freshman lawmaker.
(Emphasis added.)

With talk like that, a strong second quarter total-- certainly $100,000 or more-- would seem important.

Of course, regardless of what anyone raises, that doesn't mean anything if it doesn't translate into votes. In 2006, both Tim Walberg and Sharon Renier were outraised by other candidates for their respective nominations.

Over the next couple of weeks, FEC filings should become available and I'll post all the data. If any campaigns want to give me a sneak peak at their numbers, feel free.

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Is anyone else hoping for an FEC submission by Schwarz? I know I am... can take it as fact..that David Nacht has raised at least that amount...and still counting. I spoke with him earlier today and confirmed this..
Nacht's campaign continues to gain momentum...
How much of Nacht's contributions came from himself - do you know?
Nacht is running an extensive ad campaign in Battle Creek for his law firm (like anyone from here would want his lawyering services).

He is all over Chris Simmon's show on WBCK and you almost expect to hear "This message paid for by Nacht for Congress," at the end of it. Lorence Wenke did the same thing with his flower business, he advertised the heck out of it just to get his name out. It's it's all legal, but I question the ethics of it.
Nacht is going to outwork everyone.


As far as how much of his contributions came from himself...I'd venture less than 3%.

Sometimes these political races are like poker games...its all to set up the end game. But one still has to have the cards to win in the end. The cards are money, ideas, enthusiasm, and committment to service.

You won't have to worry about his ethics...he cares and will always do the right thing.
Has Walberg given the Dems enough rope yet? There's a long coil for a very tall tree in the making.

Nacht is smart, and a good guy, but he cannot win the 7th.

There are people with more money and influence who could run, but are instead choosing to get behind Jim Berryman.

It's easy really. Nacht was the first in from last Winter. He was going to hold the flag because Schauer was not going to run. The race came into view in the Spring and many thought Jim Berryman was the right person to take out Walberg. After much persuasion Berryman tested the waters, found a great deal of enthusiam, collected a great team, and started work just over a month ago.

Now what?

Option One:

Seeing this happen, virtually unkown Nacht bows out and gains the respect of so many who want Walberg out.

Option Two:

A long and expensive primary will allow the right wing nuts like Club for Growth to relax about Walberg and focus on winning back one of the seats they lost last time around.

When the day after the primary comes around many Dems will be busted and Walberg will have in excess of a million, without having had one debate to show himself.

Whoever wins in August, the primary is seen as a crippling process and Nacht is seen as the cause.

Walberg, virtually unchallenged for over a year, wins and Club for Growth picks up anothe seat in the House.

These are the stakes, I'm afraid to say.
A Berryman problem is that I called and left a phone message and signed up on the Berryman website, and have heard nothing from them, at all...I may need to rethink my early offer of help.
Apologies to elviscostello and others.

Your contact and help is greatly appreciated.

Please drop your name, email and phone number at the special address for Walberg Watchers
and Jim will be in touch by tomorrow at the latest.

Looked for elvis's direct email, but no luck.
I wouldn't discount Schauer. I think he is still salivating in private and he may be a factor in this race. He's too much of a poitical animal to sit on the sidelines, he's well connected in Calhoun-Jackson areas.
Mark Schauer is *not running* for this seat.

He will *not* *be running* for this seat.

No way, no how.

He does not want it, and has not wanted it.

He is doing a great job as a democratic leader in Lansing and intends to stay there.

To maintain otherwise is to be grossly misinformed.
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